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The war in Ukraine raises profound questions about the future of Europe's security architecture. Against a backdrop of deteriorating relations between Russia and NATO, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is justified, according to the Kremlin, by NATO's inability to provide sufficient security guarantees. Coincidentally, NATO plans to update the Alliance's Strategic Concept at its Madrid Summit in June 2022.

This document, which was last updated in 2010, aims to provide the main guidelines for NATO's strategy and to formulate political and military responses to the changing international context. The year 2022 will also see the adoption of a European Strategic Compass under the French Presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU). Planned for the European Council on 24 and 25 March (but which could be postponed due to events), its adoption by the Heads of State and Government should provide the EU with a doctrinal framework guiding the principles and means of its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

In a particularly deteriorated international context, this almost concomitant updating of the strategic documents of the EU and NATO invites us to examine their respective contents and, by extension, their possible adherences or divergences. The latter are particularly exacerbated in the debates on the concept of European strategic autonomy, which suggests a greater differentiation between the prerogatives of the two organisations. The purpose of this document is therefore to highlight the major dynamics shaping European security in the coming decade. To do this, it will focus on two areas: the adaptation of military capabilities to the threats identified, and the trends shaping the future contribution of the two organisations to the security architecture in Europe.