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War in Ukraine: military analysis and outlook

This note, produced between December 2022 and March 2023, aims to provide an interim assessment of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine and to outline some of the prospects for this conflict. It analyses the components of Russian resource strategy, focusing on the land dimension, which remains the main confrontation medium in this war. It also looks at the generation of Ukrainian combat power in the light of the counter-offensive announced by Kiev. The analysis concludes with a look ahead at the various key factors that will largely determine the events of this war, and different categories of scenarios.

GROS Philippe, TOURRET Vincent, Recherches & Documents, No. 4, Fondation pour la recherche stratégique, April 2023.