Four years ago, on 24 February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale offensive in Ukraine, turning the war of aggression it had unleashed in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea into a high-intensity affair.
In the space of four years, in addition to its geopolitical repercussions, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has taught us a great deal about the art of war, while leaving the general public in France somewhat at a loss as to how it has evolved. Through the insights of specialists and practitioners, the IHEDN therefore proposes to summarise the main operational stages of the conflict to date, and to analyse two of its most striking aspects.
In this interview, Air Force Major General Vincent Breton, Director of the École de guerre since 2025 and former Director of the Centre interarmées de concepts, de doctrines et d'expérimentations, gives his analysis of developments in this conflict, the state of the forces involved and the lessons to be learned for Western armies:
«Four years after the start of the large-scale offensive, the balance sheet is calamitous for Russia, which will probably never achieve the strategic objectives it had set itself by military means alone. It has failed to capitalise on its theoretical military superiority and will never succeed in taking over Ukraine, where it controls less than 20% of the territory, including Crimea.
This war has been very costly in terms of human lives [...]: since February 2022, the FAFR have suffered around 1.2 million casualties (killed, wounded and missing) [...].
Moscow had also set itself the goal of moving NATO away from its borders. Here too it was a resounding failure for the Kremlin, as Sweden and Finland - which had always insisted on maintaining their neutrality - joined NATO in 2023 and 2024, increasing the line of contact between Russia and NATO by 1,300 km».»
In the space of four years, drones have assumed major importance in this conflict, to the extent that it is estimated that an average of 10,000 drones will be used every day by each of the two belligerents in early 2026.
To analyse this upheaval in the art of war, three specialists shed light on the subject:
- The army general (in 2e section) Grégoire de Saint-Quentin, Chairman of the consulting firm GEOS, and former Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations.
- The consultant Mat Hauser, co-founder of Dronivka, a company specialising in drone services for the armed forces and industry.
- The researcher Ronald Hatto, a former artillery officer and professor of international relations at Sciences Po Paris.
Since February 2022, hybrid interference has been on the increase, targeting the weaknesses of European states in order to weaken their cohesion. What are the aims and forms of these attacks, and what responses are being put in place in France and Europe?
Focusing on information warfare, three specialists provide answers to these questions:
- The Air Division General (in 2e section) Jean-Marc Vigilant, former director of the École de guerre and associate researcher at IRIS.
- The researcher Maxime Audinet, He holds the «Strategies of Influence» chair at INALCO, specialising in information warfare and Russian foreign policy.
- A former French intelligence executive, whose former profession requests anonymity.
