{"id":33738,"date":"2023-02-01T15:49:41","date_gmt":"2023-02-01T14:49:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/?p=33738"},"modified":"2023-06-30T13:19:44","modified_gmt":"2023-06-30T12:19:44","slug":"economie-de-guerre-comment-la-france-sadapte-a-la-haute-intensite","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/en\/notre-selection\/economie-de-guerre-comment-la-france-sadapte-a-la-haute-intensite\/","title":{"rendered":"War economy: how is France adapting to high intensity?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Decades of declining capacity growth<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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In the mid-1980s, the launch of perestroika by Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev signalled the end of forty years of Cold War. For the Western democracies, it was time to reap the \"peace dividend\". In France, a nuclear power, the defence doctrine is now based on two pillars: nuclear deterrence and the ability to project rapidly onto external war zones.<\/p>

In political terms, this new situation means that military spending is highly dependent on economic constraints. The defence budget is becoming a budgetary adjustment variable: equipment credits \"are seen as something that can be deferred, postponed or even cancelled in part\", notes economist Julien Malizard, deputy chair of Defence Economics at the IHEDN, in a meeting in January<\/a>.<\/p>

The defence budget is becoming virtually neutral (and sometimes negative in relation to the rate of growth). We are seeing a \"fundamental failure to implement military programming laws, with sometimes a year's worth of equipment missing from the 4 or 5 years of implementation of a LPM\", adds Julien Malizard.<\/p>

As a result, democracies in Europe are disarming on a massive scale: \"Between 1999 and 2014, European countries themselves reduced their battle tank fleets by 66 %, their combat aircraft by 45 % and their fleet of surface ships by 25 %\", according to IFRI researchers Michel Pesqueur and \u00c9lie Tenenbaum. in the Revue D\u00e9fense Nationale.<\/a> And between 2009 and 2014, the French armed forces lost almost a quarter of their personnel.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t

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First switchover since 2014: filling gaps, adjusting volumes<\/h4>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, US President Barack Obama is beginning to disengage his country from foreign conflicts. The Western superpower is increasingly occupied with Chinese rivalry, which is not lost on America's allies.<\/p>

France is taking the measure of this new strategic context, summarised by economist Nicolas Baverez and former Prime Minister Bernard Cazeneuve in a report for the Institut Montaigne in 2021<\/a> Financial crisis, cyber attacks, Islamist terrorism, pandemics, information manipulation, foreign investment in strategic sectors, the return of military powers: since the 2000s, the risks and threats facing France and Europe have increased and diversified\".<\/p>

The nuclear deterrent\/external projection diptych is outdated. And \"the model based on quality, but with reduced quantities for cost reasons, is now under threat\", adds Nicolas Baverez. the meeting<\/a> organised by the IHEDN Defence Economics Chair. France recognises its shortcomings: drones purchased abroad, insufficient ammunition and spare parts, etc.<\/p>

The economist cites two examples of equipment that was under-delivered because of budgetary trade-offs:<\/p>