{"id":55228,"date":"2025-08-26T10:17:42","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T09:17:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/?p=55228"},"modified":"2026-05-21T12:47:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T11:47:12","slug":"le-conflit-autour-du-cachemire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/en\/fiches-actualite\/le-conflit-autour-du-cachemire\/","title":{"rendered":"The Kashmir conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"55228\" class=\"elementor elementor-55228\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c679842 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"c679842\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8b64218 elementor-position-inline-end elementor-view-default elementor-mobile-position-block-start elementor-widget elementor-widget-icon-box\" data-id=\"8b64218\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"icon-box.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-wrapper\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/IHEDN-Fiche-27.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"elementor-icon\" tabindex=\"-1\" aria-label=\"T\u00e9l\u00e9charger la fiche d&#039;actualit\u00e9\">\n\t\t\t\t<svg aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"e-font-icon-svg e-fas-file-download\" viewBox=\"0 0 384 512\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"M224 136V0H24C10.7 0 0 10.7 0 24v464c0 13.3 10.7 24 24 24h336c13.3 0 24-10.7 24-24V160H248c-13.2 0-24-10.8-24-24zm76.45 211.36l-96.42 95.7c-6.65 6.61-17.39 6.61-24.04 0l-96.42-95.7C73.42 337.29 80.54 320 94.82 320H160v-80c0-8.84 7.16-16 16-16h32c8.84 0 16 7.16 16 16v80h65.18c14.28 0 21.4 17.29 11.27 27.36zM377 105L279.1 7c-4.5-4.5-10.6-7-17-7H256v128h128v-6.1c0-6.3-2.5-12.4-7-16.9z\"><\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-icon-box-content\">\n\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<h3 class=\"elementor-icon-box-title\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/IHEDN-Fiche-27.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" >\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tT\u00e9l\u00e9charger la fiche d'actualit\u00e9\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/h3>\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d9ea199 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"d9ea199\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-411d4ef elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"411d4ef\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Cette fiche d'actualit\u00e9 est \u00e9galement disponible en version audio<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-5ae8878 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"5ae8878\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Cliquez ci-dessous pour \u00e9couter :<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3dd3384 elementor-widget elementor-widget-html\" data-id=\"3dd3384\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" 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{\n    const current = wavesurfer1.getCurrentTime();\n    const duration = wavesurfer1.getDuration();\n    timeDisplay1.textContent = formatTime(current) + ' \/ ' + formatTime(duration);\n});\n\nwavesurfer1.on('ready', () => {\n    const duration = wavesurfer1.getDuration();\n    timeDisplay1.textContent = '00:00 \/ ' + formatTime(duration);\n});\n<\/script>\n<\/section>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c12cc3 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1c12cc3\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-430727f e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"430727f\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-626ac70 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"626ac70\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><strong>R\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/strong><\/p><ul><li>La confrontation arm\u00e9e de mai 2025 entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan n\u2019est que la derni\u00e8re it\u00e9ration d\u2019un conflit ancien autour du Cachemire, remontant \u00e0 l\u2019ind\u00e9pendance des pays en 1947;<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><ul><li>Pour des raisons de politique int\u00e9rieure, les gouvernements indien et pakistanais ont tous deux un fort int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 se montrer intransigeants sur le sujet du Cachemire, alors m\u00eame que leur statut de puissances nucl\u00e9aires questionne fortement sur la possibilit\u00e9 d\u2019une victoire strat\u00e9gique de l\u2019un ou l\u2019autre camp\u2009;<\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><ul><li>Faute de rechercher une r\u00e9solution r\u00e9elle du conflit, la probabilit\u00e9 de futures confrontations ouvertes est \u00e9lev\u00e9e,\u2009avec toujours un risque d\u2019escalades difficiles \u00e0 contr\u00f4ler entre puissances dot\u00e9es de l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire.<\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1374aeb e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1374aeb\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-390bd83 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"390bd83\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3a991a2 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"3a991a2\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Contexte \u2013 Un conflit h\u00e9rit\u00e9 du temps des ind\u00e9pendances<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d559fba elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"d559fba\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Le conflit entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan de mai 2025 n\u2019est que la derni\u00e8re it\u00e9ration d\u2019un antagonisme d\u00e9j\u00e0 ancien. Le sous-continent indien fait partie int\u00e9grante de l\u2019Empire britannique de 1858 \u00e0 1947. Deux pays naissent lors de la d\u00e9colonisation\u2009; le Pakistan, \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 musulmane et qui englobe alors l\u2019actuel Bangladesh, et l\u2019Inde, \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 hindoue. La partition entre les deux \u00c9tats est hautement conflictuelle, entra\u00eenant plusieurs centaines de milliers de morts dans des \u00e9pisodes de violence communautaire et le d\u00e9placement de millions de personnes selon certaines estimations.<\/p><p>Le Cachemire est d\u00e8s la p\u00e9riode d\u2019ind\u00e9pendance l\u2019objet d\u2019un d\u00e9saccord majeur entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan. Selon le plan de partition pr\u00e9vu par le <em>Indian Independence Act<\/em>, la r\u00e9gion, qui est \u00e0 majorit\u00e9 musulmane mais dirig\u00e9e par un <em>maharaja<\/em> hindou, est libre de rejoindre l\u2019un ou l\u2019autre des \u00c9tats. Bien que souhaitant initialement que cet espace soit ind\u00e9pendant, le <em>maharaja<\/em> se r\u00e9sout \u00e0 demander une assistance militaire\u00a0\u00e0 l\u2019Inde quand des groupes arm\u00e9s pakistanais envahissent la r\u00e9gion en octobre 1947. La condition pos\u00e9e par New Delhi \u00e0 son aide est que le Cachemire rejoigne son territoire. La r\u00e9gion est d\u00e8s lors temporairement incorpor\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019Inde, avec la promesse d\u2019un vote futur \u2014 qui n\u2019aura jamais lieu \u2014 visant \u00e0 ent\u00e9riner cette int\u00e9gration. Le soutien indien au Cachemire entra\u00eene la premi\u00e8re guerre indo-pakistanaise fin\u00a01947, qui se termine avec un cessez-le-feu effectif d\u00e9but\u00a01949 et la partition du territoire. Comme le souligne l\u2019illustration ci-dessous, le Pakistan administre une partie au nord et \u00e0 l\u2019ouest, l\u2019Inde contr\u00f4le la partie au sud, tandis que la Chine s\u2019accapare deux zones au nord-est. Inde et Pakistan revendiquent d\u00e8s cette p\u00e9riode la partie contr\u00f4l\u00e9e par leur rival.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-54e410d elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"54e410d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cachemire#\/media\/Fichier:Kashmir_map.svg\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"866\" height=\"681\" src=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-28-figure-1.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-60139\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-28-figure-1.png 866w, https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-28-figure-1-15x12.png 15w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Carte du Cachemire <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-11f7f20 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"11f7f20\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Malgr\u00e9 ces d\u00e9buts compliqu\u00e9s, des espoirs de d\u00e9tente entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan naissent dans les ann\u00e9es qui suivent. Le Trait\u00e9 des eaux de l\u2019Indus est notamment sign\u00e9 en 1960. L\u2019accord r\u00e9gule le partage des eaux des six fleuves du bassin de l\u2019Indus. En 1963, les deux gouvernements tiennent des pourparlers \u00e0 propos du Cachemire, avec la m\u00e9diation des \u00c9tats-Unis et du Royaume-Uni. Aucun accord durable n\u2019est toutefois sign\u00e9, et les espoirs de rapprochement p\u00e9riclitent. Une deuxi\u00e8me guerre pour le Cachemire \u00e9clate en 1965, quand des milliers de soldats pakistanais d\u00e9guis\u00e9s en civils franchissent la ligne de cessez-le-feu et envahissent la partie administr\u00e9e par l\u2019Inde. La guerre se termine par une nouvelle tr\u00eave apr\u00e8s trois semaines de combats. Les deux pays rivaux signent en 1966 un accord r\u00e9tablissant leurs relations diplomatiques et \u00e9conomiques.<\/p><p>La d\u00e9tente est cependant, une fois encore, de courte dur\u00e9e. L\u2019Inde appuie en effet militairement le Bangladesh lors du conflit menant \u00e0 son ind\u00e9pendance en 1971. Les dirigeants indiens et pakistanais tentent ensuite \u00e0 nouveau d\u2019\u00e9chafauder un rapprochement. Les deux \u00c9tats signent notamment l\u2019Accord de Shimla en 1972, via lequel ils s\u2019engagent \u00e0 r\u00e9gler pacifiquement leurs diff\u00e9rends et red\u00e9finissent la ligne de cessez-le-feu en une ligne de contr\u00f4le (<em>Line of Control<\/em> [LoC] en anglais) qu\u2019aucune des deux parties ne doit tenter de modifier unilat\u00e9ralement.<\/p><p>Le Cachemire demeure au c\u0153ur des tensions entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan dans les ann\u00e9es\u00a01980 et 1990. Le conflit mute cependant quelque peu. Un mouvement s\u00e9paratiste rejetant le gouvernement du Cachemire administr\u00e9 par l\u2019Inde se d\u00e9veloppe, puis s\u2019engage dans une v\u00e9ritable r\u00e9sistance arm\u00e9e \u00e0 partir de 1989. Les d\u00e9cennies qui suivent sont marqu\u00e9es par une extr\u00eame violence, avec des dizaines de milliers d\u2019attentats \u00e0 la bombe, de fusillades, ou d\u2019enl\u00e8vements. L\u2019inde accuse ouvertement le Pakistan de soutenir mat\u00e9riellement ces groupes arm\u00e9s qualifi\u00e9s de terroristes. Bien que nombre de ces organisations aient effectivement des bases au Pakistan, Islamabad ne reconna\u00eet cependant souvent qu\u2019un soutien moral ou diplomatique aux s\u00e9paratistes.<\/p><p>Encore une fois, les \u00e9pisodes de fortes tensions indo-pakistanaises sont entrecoup\u00e9s de p\u00e9riodes d\u2019apaisement. En 1991, les deux pays s\u2019accordent par exemple sur la notification pr\u00e9alable d\u2019exercices militaires ou de mouvements de troupes. En 1992, ils s\u2019accordent sur l\u2019interdiction de l\u2019utilisation d\u2019armes chimiques. En 1999, ils signent la D\u00e9claration de Lahore, qui r\u00e9affirme leur engagement respectif envers l\u2019Accord de Shimla. La d\u00e9tente est encore une fois \u00e9ph\u00e9m\u00e8re. Plus tard la m\u00eame ann\u00e9e, des combattants pakistanais franchissent la ligne de contr\u00f4le et s\u2019emparent de postes militaires indiens, d\u00e9clenchant la guerre de Kargil\u00a0; le nom du lieu o\u00f9 elle se d\u00e9roule.<\/p><p>Cette succession de tensions d\u00e9clenchant parfois des affrontements arm\u00e9s se poursuit dans les ann\u00e9es\u00a02000 et 2010. Alors que l\u2019Inde est victime d\u2019attaques terroristes massives sur son sol \u2013 notamment celle de Mumbai de 2008, qui fait plus de 160\u00a0morts \u2013 New Delhi continue \u00e0 accuser le Pakistan de soutenir les organisations impliqu\u00e9es. Comme pr\u00e9c\u00e9demment, ces moments de tensions sont entrecoup\u00e9s de p\u00e9riodes de plus grand dialogue entre les rivaux, qui ne renoncent cependant jamais \u00e0 leurs pr\u00e9tentions territoriales sur le Cachemire. En 2014, le chef de l\u2019arm\u00e9e pakistanaise qualifie la r\u00e9gion de \u00ab\u2009veine jugulaire\u2009\u00bb du Pakistan. En 2019, l\u2019Inde r\u00e9voque le statut sp\u00e9cial du Cachemire qui lui offrait une forte autonomie et commence \u00e0 administrer le territoire directement.<\/p><p>Les \u00e9pisodes de conflits entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan \u2014 dont plusieurs guerres en 1947, 1965, 1971 et 1999 \u2014 se multiplient ainsi depuis les ind\u00e9pendances, sans d\u00e9boucher pour autant sur un affrontement total. Le Cachemire est aujourd\u2019hui l\u2019une des r\u00e9gions les plus militaris\u00e9es au monde. De plus, une \u00e9volution majeure a lieu dans les derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies\u00a0: le d\u00e9veloppement, tant par l\u2019Inde que le Pakistan, d\u2019un arsenal nucl\u00e9aire militaire. L\u2019Inde fait exploser cinq engins nucl\u00e9aires en 1998. Le Pakistan r\u00e9agit en en faisant exploser six la m\u00eame ann\u00e9e. Bien que frapp\u00e9s de sanctions par de nombreux pays, les deux \u00c9tats deviennent \u00e0 cette p\u00e9riode des puissances dot\u00e9es, avec, comme expos\u00e9 dans le graphique ci-dessous, un nombre relativement similaire d\u2019ogives dans leurs arsenaux.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-214260b elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"214260b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/nuclear-weapons\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"866\" height=\"611\" src=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-2.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-60140\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-2.png 866w, https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-2-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">\u00c9volution du nombre d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires poss\u00e9d\u00e9es par l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1c854eb elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"1c854eb\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Le renouvellement r\u00e9cent des hostilit\u00e9s fait suite \u00e0 une attaque tuant 26\u00a0civils dans le Cachemire administr\u00e9 par l\u2019Inde le 22\u00a0avril 2025. Bien que le gouvernement pakistanais nie toute implication, New Delhi accuse son voisin de soutenir les organisations arm\u00e9es responsables et lance le 7\u00a0mai l\u2019Op\u00e9ration <em>Sindoor<\/em> qui inclue des frappes sur de multiples cibles au Pakistan et dans le Cachemire administr\u00e9 par Islamabad. Les jours qui suivent sont le th\u00e9\u00e2tre d\u2019engagements a\u00e9riens et d\u2019\u00e9changes de missiles, de drones, et d\u2019obus d\u2019artillerie entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan. Un cessez-le-feu est finalement annonc\u00e9 le 10\u00a0mai, visiblement n\u00e9goci\u00e9 au moins en partie sous l\u2019\u00e9gide du gouvernement am\u00e9ricain.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-415e11b e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"415e11b\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-93fa671 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"93fa671\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0d2225b elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"0d2225b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Analyse \u2013 La guerre \u00e0 l\u2019ext\u00e9rieur, pour des gains \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur\u2009?<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a615267 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"a615267\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Si la guerre de 1999 fait un plus grand nombre de victimes, les op\u00e9rations de 2025 sont l\u2019affrontement indo-pakistanais le plus \u00e9tendu depuis 1971, avec des combats au-del\u00e0 du seul Cachemire. Les \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9cents soulignent le fait que la possession d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires par deux \u00c9tats n\u2019est pas, en soi, un gage d\u2019absence compl\u00e8te de conflit arm\u00e9. Cette constatation ne remet pas en cause la logique m\u00eame de la dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire, mais d\u00e9montre que ce concept n\u2019est jamais un absolu\u2009; des \u00e9pisodes de guerre peuvent tout de m\u00eame avoir lieu \u00e0 l\u2019ombre d\u2019une logique plus large de dissuasion. Ces affrontements paraissent toutefois vou\u00e9s \u00e0 demeurer limit\u00e9s dans le temps, l\u2019espace et l\u2019intensit\u00e9, afin d\u2019\u00e9viter une escalade aux cons\u00e9quences d\u00e9sastreuses. Aucun r\u00e9el gain strat\u00e9gique ne para\u00eet raisonnablement envisageable dans une telle configuration, notamment sur le plan territorial, et seules des victoires tactiques et principalement symboliques peuvent \u00eatre esp\u00e9r\u00e9es par les bellig\u00e9rants dot\u00e9s de l\u2019arme nucl\u00e9aire.<\/p><p>Ce constat \u00e9tant pos\u00e9, quels int\u00e9r\u00eats ont l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan \u00e0 s\u2019engager dans des aventures militaires contre leur rival \u2014 au-del\u00e0 de seules repr\u00e9sailles asym\u00e9triques \u2014 alors m\u00eame qu\u2019ils sont probablement conscients de l\u2019impossibilit\u00e9 d\u2019obtenir des gains strat\u00e9giques substantiels\u00a0? L\u2019une des explications a trait \u00e0 des enjeux de politique int\u00e9rieure. Les attaques d\u2019envergure, notamment contre des civils, peuvent obliger des dirigeants \u00e0 r\u00e9agir d\u00e9lib\u00e9remment pour satisfaire une demande populaire d\u2019action et rester l\u00e9gitime aupr\u00e8s de l\u2019opinion publique. Au-del\u00e0 d\u2019une pression interne, des attaques d\u2019ampleur permettent souvent \u00e0 des dirigeants de b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier d\u2019un \u00ab\u2009effet drapeau\u2009\u00bb (<em>rally \u2019round the flag effect<\/em> en anglais). En d\u00e9pit d\u2019\u00e9ventuelles contestations int\u00e9rieures, il est en effet fr\u00e9quent qu\u2019un gouvernement profite d\u2019un soutien accru de sa population quand se pr\u00e9sente une menace externe.<\/p><p>Les gouvernements indien et pakistanais paraissent ainsi faire face \u00e0 une forte pression interne pour agir lors des derniers affrontements. La pression semble d\u2019autant plus importante que le Cachemire est porteur d\u2019une dimension symbolique forte pour les mouvements nationalistes religieux au pouvoir dans les deux pays. D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, le nationalisme hindou incarn\u00e9 par le <em>Bharatiya Janata Party<\/em> (BJP) de Narendra Modi fait du Cachemire un enjeu cl\u00e9, et se veut intransigeant vis-\u00e0-vis du Pakistan. \u00c0 mesure que le gouvernement prend un tournant nationaliste et religieux dans les derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, il semble de plus en plus difficile pour l\u2019Inde de faire preuve de retenue face \u00e0 des attaques sur son territoire. Si l\u2019Inde ne frappe pas le Pakistan apr\u00e8s l\u2019attentat de Mumbai de 2008 \u2014 esp\u00e9rant certainement isoler Islamabad en l\u2019accusant de soutenir le terrorisme plut\u00f4t que de l\u2019\u00e9lever au rang d\u2019\u00e9gal sur le champ de bataille \u2014 la situation diff\u00e8re aujourd\u2019hui. Le gouvernement indien subit une forte pression apr\u00e8s l\u2019attaque du 22\u00a0avril 2025 en faveur d\u2019une r\u00e9ponse militaire contre le Pakistan. La rh\u00e9torique hostile des derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es a fa\u00e7onn\u00e9 les attentes du public et ne pas riposter est risqu\u00e9 politiquement pour Modi. C\u2019est d\u2019autant plus le cas que, dans la foul\u00e9e de l\u2019attaque d\u2019avril, ressortent en ligne d\u2019anciennes vid\u00e9os du Premier ministre critiquant l\u2019absence de r\u00e9ponse indienne en 2008.<\/p><p>De la m\u00eame mani\u00e8re, l\u2019\u00c9tat pakistanais, et en particulier l\u2019arm\u00e9e et les services de renseignement, \u200b\u200bconstruisent depuis longtemps leur l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 sur un nationalisme religieux dont la d\u00e9fense des musulmans du Cachemire \u2013 et donc la posture anti-indienne \u2013 sont des piliers. La rivalit\u00e9 vis-\u00e0-vis de l\u2019Inde permet souvent de justifier le r\u00f4le d\u00e9mesur\u00e9 jou\u00e9 par les institutions s\u00e9curitaires dans la vie politique et \u00e9conomique du pays. Le r\u00e9gime pakistanais subit donc, \u00e0 son tour, une forte pression pour riposter aux premi\u00e8res attaques indiennes d\u00e9but mai et \u00e9ventuellement r\u00e9tablir une forme de dissuasion. Adopter une riposte ferme aux attaques indiennes appara\u00eet n\u00e9cessaire pour les dirigeants pakistanais pour maintenir leur l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 interne.<\/p><p>Les deux pays se pr\u00e9sentent comme victorieux \u00e0 l\u2019issue de l\u2019\u00e9pisode de conflit de mai 2025, minimisant leurs pertes et vantant leurs succ\u00e8s. D\u2019un point de vue symbolique, un conflit entre deux pays dot\u00e9s, qui ne peut \u00eatre que limit\u00e9 ou compl\u00e8tement destructeur, semble cependant n\u00e9cessairement b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9tat le moins puissant sur le papier. Ce dernier, ne souffrant pas d\u2019une d\u00e9faite strat\u00e9gique, peut se vanter d\u2019avoir tenu t\u00eate \u00e0 son rival <em>a priori<\/em> plus puissant. Comme le montrent les deux graphiques ci-dessous, dans le cas d\u2019esp\u00e8ce, car disposant de beaucoup moins de moyens militaires, c\u2019est probablement le Pakistan qui a le plus \u00e0 gagner politiquement d\u2019un tel affrontement.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-89117c4 elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"89117c4\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/military-personnel-spending\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img decoding=\"async\" width=\"866\" height=\"611\" src=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-3.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-60142\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-3.png 866w, https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-3-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Comparaison des budgets militaires indien et pakistanais en 2024 <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e117e3b elementor-widget elementor-widget-image\" data-id=\"e117e3b\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"image.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figure class=\"wp-caption\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/military-personnel-spending\" target=\"_blank\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"866\" height=\"611\" src=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-4.png\" class=\"attachment-full size-full wp-image-60143\" alt=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-4.png 866w, https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/fiche-actualite-27-figure-4-18x12.png 18w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 866px) 100vw, 866px\" \/>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<figcaption class=\"widget-image-caption wp-caption-text\">Comparaison des effectifs militaires indiens et pakistanais en 2020 <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-57ccc6f elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"57ccc6f\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Au jeu de la mobilisation des nationalismes, et ind\u00e9pendamment de qui l\u2019aurait r\u00e9ellement emport\u00e9 sur un simple plan tactique, le Pakistan semble sortir vainqueur de l\u2019affrontement r\u00e9cent. Ce conflit intervient \u00e0 un moment opportun pour le gouvernement d\u2019Islamabad domin\u00e9 par l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Le Pakistan est aujourd\u2019hui embourb\u00e9 dans de multiples crises qui s\u2019entrem\u00ealent. Sur le plan politique, le pays conna\u00eet de forts bouleversements, notamment depuis l\u2019\u00e9viction et l\u2019emprisonnement du Premier ministre Imran Khan en 2022. L\u2019actuel r\u00e9gime est accus\u00e9 d\u2019avoir pris le pouvoir <em>via<\/em> des \u00e9lections consid\u00e9r\u00e9es comme manipul\u00e9es par l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Sur le plan s\u00e9curitaire, l\u2019\u00c9tat central fait face \u00e0 d\u2019importants mouvements s\u00e9paratistes dans plusieurs r\u00e9gions, affectant encore la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 de l\u2019arm\u00e9e. Sur le plan \u00e9conomique, la situation du pays est \u00e9galement sombre, avec notamment une forte inflation. Dans ce contexte, montrer que le pays peut tenir t\u00eate \u00e0 l\u2019Inde et n\u00e9gocier la fin des combats d\u2019\u00e9gal \u00e0 \u00e9gal avec un adversaire sur le papier plus puissant permet \u00e0 l\u2019arm\u00e9e pakistanaise de r\u00e9habiliter, au moins temporairement, son image publique et de d\u00e9tourner l\u2019attention des accusations de r\u00e9pression. Des rassemblements c\u00e9l\u00e9brant la performance des forces arm\u00e9es sont notamment observ\u00e9s dans le pays \u00e0 la suite du cessez-le-feu du 10\u00a0mai.<\/p><p>M\u00eame si l\u2019Inde se pr\u00e9sente \u00e9galement comme vainqueur, New Delhi a certainement plus de difficult\u00e9s \u00e0 tirer politiquement profit de l\u2019\u00e9pisode. Certes, le gouvernement montre <em>via<\/em> ses repr\u00e9sailles une forte d\u00e9termination \u00e0 agir contre toute menace \u00e9manant de son rival historique, pouvant jouer en faveur de sa l\u00e9gitimit\u00e9 interne. Cependant, bien qu\u2019<em>a priori<\/em> plus puissante que le Pakistan, l\u2019Inde n\u2019atteint pas d\u2019objectifs majeurs. Alors qu\u2019elle souhaite s\u2019\u00e9lever au rang de grande puissance mondiale, l\u2019Inde se retrouve \u00e0 n\u00e9gocier d\u2019\u00e9gal \u00e0 \u00e9gal avec un pays consid\u00e9r\u00e9 comme un soutien du terrorisme international que New Delhi n\u2019a eu de cesse de vouloir marginaliser, sans succ\u00e8s jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent. D\u2019un point de vue d\u2019image au moins, la confrontation pourrait d\u00e8s lors constituer un revers pour l\u2019Inde.<\/p><p>Le r\u00e9cent combat a donc certainement eu bien plus de cons\u00e9quences politiques internes que strat\u00e9giques pour les deux gouvernements. La principale pr\u00e9occupation des deux parties semble aujourd\u2019hui \u00eatre le co\u00fbt politique risqu\u00e9 en cas de faiblesse per\u00e7ue face \u00e0 des attaques subies. Le conflit indo-pakistanais ne d\u00e9montre pas tant l\u2019\u00e9chec de la dissuasion nucl\u00e9aire que l\u2019une de ses limites intrins\u00e8ques\u2009; elle peut pr\u00e9venir les guerres totales entre \u00c9tats dot\u00e9s, pas forc\u00e9ment les \u00e9pisodes de violence arm\u00e9e ou des formes de subversions plus asym\u00e9triques passant notamment par des groupes arm\u00e9s non \u00e9tatiques ou des campagnes d\u2019assassinats cibl\u00e9s. Dans un conflit entre deux puissances nucl\u00e9aires ne pouvant trouver de r\u00e9elle issue strat\u00e9gique, c\u2019est alors souvent le faible qui aura un avantage par rapport au fort\u00a0en mati\u00e8re d\u2019image.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-b5e02d5 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"b5e02d5\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2c347ce elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"2c347ce\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-36adf55 elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"36adf55\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Perspectives \u2013 Un \u00e9ternel recommencement\u2009?<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0774523 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0774523\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Le poids du nationalisme religieux dans les deux pays peut rendre pessimiste sur la probabilit\u00e9 d\u2019un rapprochement prochain. Les deux gouvernements ont un fort int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 adopter des positions intransigeantes vis-\u00e0-vis de leur rival respectif pour satisfaire leur opinion publique, rendant tout geste de conciliation pratiquement impossible. Le conflit autour du Cachemire est d\u00e8s lors aujourd\u2019hui uniquement g\u00e9r\u00e9 quand des affrontements ont lieu, sans qu\u2019un r\u00e9el processus de r\u00e9solution soit engag\u00e9 entre deux parties refusant tout renoncement territorial. Si la possession d\u2019armes nucl\u00e9aires rend peu probable une remise en cause du contr\u00f4le du Cachemire \u00e0 court, moyen ou m\u00eame long terme, en l\u2019absence de r\u00e9el dialogue bilat\u00e9ral, la question n\u2019est pas tant de savoir si les affrontements du type de ceux de mai 2025 reprendront, mais quand cela arrivera. Apr\u00e8s les derni\u00e8res hostilit\u00e9s, l\u2019Inde d\u00e9clare que toute attaque terroriste future sera consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme un acte de guerre.<\/p><p>Si le spectre de la guerre nucl\u00e9aire rend toute victoire strat\u00e9gique illusoire, le risque d\u2019escalade nucl\u00e9aire ne peut \u00eatre compl\u00e8tement sous-estim\u00e9 dans le cas de futurs affrontements. L\u2019Inde affirme aujourd\u2019hui disposer d\u2019une politique de non-recours en premier aux armes nucl\u00e9aires, mais pas le Pakistan, qui consid\u00e8re que les armes tactiques peuvent \u00eatre un moyen de pallier sa faiblesse en mati\u00e8re de forces conventionnelles vis-\u00e0-vis de l\u2019Inde. La combinaison d\u2019un nombre croissant d\u2019armes poss\u00e9d\u00e9es par les rivaux \u2014 comme expos\u00e9 dans la figure\u00a02 \u2014 et de la faillibilit\u00e9 humaine pose d\u00e8s lors le risque d\u2019un usage dans le futur, que ce soit de mani\u00e8re intentionnelle ou par erreur.<\/p><p>Le risque d\u2019une escalade incontr\u00f4l\u00e9e pouvant ultimement mener \u00e0 un conflit nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9 para\u00eet d\u2019autant plus grand aujourd\u2019hui que, occup\u00e9es sur d\u2019autres th\u00e9\u00e2tres, les grandes puissances semblent d\u00e9sormais peu promptes \u00e0 intervenir rapidement en cas de conflit indo-pakistanais. Les guerres pr\u00e9c\u00e9dentes se sont souvent termin\u00e9es du fait de l\u2019intervention d\u2019acteurs tiers, notamment des \u00c9tats-Unis. Lors des affrontements de 2025, les \u00c9tats-Unis tardent cependant \u00e0 agir, consid\u00e9rant dans un premier temps que le conflit n\u2019est pas de leur ressort. Pendant plusieurs jours, les deux pays nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9s se font donc face sans que personne ne puisse r\u00e9ellement les arr\u00eater.<\/p><p>Une guerre nucl\u00e9aire entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan serait en tous points dramatique. Une \u00e9tude scientifique de 2019 publi\u00e9e dans le <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em> \u00e9value que, dans un tel sc\u00e9nario, des millions de personnes mourraient imm\u00e9diatement et des milliards pourraient \u00eatre affect\u00e9es \u00e0 plus long terme. Les millions de tonnes de suie produites par les d\u00e9tonations cr\u00e9eraient en effet des nuages de d\u00e9bris pouvant masquer le soleil, abaisser les temp\u00e9ratures mondiales, et ainsi provoquer des famines<sup><a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a><\/sup>. Un sc\u00e9nario catastrophe \u00e0 \u00e9viter \u00e0 tout prix.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-a5fbdf8 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"a5fbdf8\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-0e7d95e elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"0e7d95e\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> <span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/00963402.2019.1680049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alan Robock et al., \u00ab\u00a0How an India-Pakistan Nuclear War Could Start\u2014and Have Global Consequences\u00a0\u00bb, <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em> 75, n<sup>o<\/sup> 6 (2019): 273\u201179<\/a><\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-84df959 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"84df959\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d568039 e-con-full e-flex e-con e-child\" data-id=\"d568039\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\" data-settings=\"{&quot;background_background&quot;:&quot;classic&quot;}\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-c7cc292 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"c7cc292\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>Pour aller plus loin<\/strong><\/span><\/p><ul><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/18\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-conflict.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib, et Alex Travelli. \u00ab\u2009Why There\u2019s No Battlefield Solution to India\u2019s Perpetual Pakistan Problem\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 18\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><ul><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00963402.2019.1680049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Lili Xia, Hans M. Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl S. Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, et Richard P. Turco. \u00ab\u2009How an India-Pakistan Nuclear War Could Start\u2014and Have Global Consequences\u2009\u00bb. <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em> 75, n<sup>o<\/sup> 6 (2 novembre 2019): 273\u201179<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ul><ul><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/how-the-kashmir-conflict-impacts-indian-pakistani-politics\/a-72516887\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shams, Shamil. \u00ab\u00a0How the Kashmir Conflict Impacts Indian, Pakistani Politics\u00a0\u00bb. <em>DW<\/em>, 12\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ul><p>\u00a0<\/p><ul><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/india-pakistan-strikes-5-essential-reads-on-decades-of-rivalry-and-tensions-over-kashmir-256157\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Williams, M<\/a><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/india-pakistan-strikes-5-essential-reads-on-decades-of-rivalry-and-tensions-over-kashmir-256157\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">att. \u00ab\u00a0India-Pakistan Strikes: 5 Essential Reads on Decades of Rivalry and Tensions Over Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The Conversation<\/em>, 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1de195d e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"1de195d\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-d1d6369 elementor-widget elementor-widget-spacer\" data-id=\"d1d6369\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"spacer.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-spacer-inner\"><\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-30e2edf elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"30e2edf\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<h5 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\">Bibliographie<\/h5>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-aa72129 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"aa72129\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>Cette <em>fiche s&rsquo;appuie sur des informations recens\u00e9es dans les sources suivantes:<\/em><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f12aa2d elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f12aa2d\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/5\/9\/india-pakistan-tensions-a-brief-history-of-conflict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Al Jazeera<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009India-Pakistan Tensions: A Brief History of Conflict\u2009\u00bb. 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2025\/05\/after-indias-missile-strikes-pakistan-risk-accidental-escalation-high\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bajpaee, Chietigj. \u00ab\u00a0After India\u2019s Missile Strikes on Pakistan, the Risk of Accidental Escalation Is High\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Chatham House<\/em>, 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2025\/05\/india-pakistan-ceasefire-remains-shaky-relations-unlikely-return-status-quo-0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bajpaee, Chietigj. \u00ab\u00a0India\u2013Pakistan Ceasefire Remains Shaky, with Relations Unlikely to Return to Status Quo\u2009\u00bb. <em>Chatham House<\/em>, 13\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/india\/end-secular-india\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bal, Hartosh Singh. \u00ab\u00a0The End of Secular India\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 12\u00a0avril 2024<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-south-asia-16069078\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>BBC<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009Kashmir Profile &#8211; Timeline\u2009\u00bb. 6\u00a0ao\u00fbt 2019<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c30q09638n8o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>BBC<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009Kashmir: Why India and Pakistan Fight Over It\u2009\u00bb. 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2025\/may\/07\/kashmir-crisis-pakistan-terrorist-groups-infrastructure\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Beaumont, Peter. \u00ab\u00a0Kashmir Crisis: What Is Lashkar-E-Taiba and Is It Supported by Pakistan?\u00a0\u00bb <em>The Guardian<\/em>, 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/brut.media\/us\/news\/what-is-the-rally-round-the-flag-effect--8160eb28-9095-4851-9ddd-c5adf657e58a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Brut.<\/em> \u00ab\u2009What Is the \u201cRally \u2019Round the Flag Effect?\u201d\u2009\u00bb 8\u00a0janvier 2020<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2025\/05\/14\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-attack-damage-satellite-images.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Chang, Agnes, Pablo Robles, et Mujib Mashal. \u00ab\u00a0India and Pakistan Talked Big, but Satellite Imagery Shows Limited Damage\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 14\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/global-conflict-tracker\/conflict\/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009Conflict Between India and Pakistan\u2009\u00bb. 12\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/india\/how-america-can-keep-peace-between-india-and-pakistan\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Curtis, Lisa. \u00ab\u00a0How America Can Keep the Peace Between India and Pakistan\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 13\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/09\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-kashmir-drones.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Das, Anupreeta, et Salman Masood. \u00ab\u2009India and Pakistan Escalate Attacks to Military Bases\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/11\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-kashmir-ceasefire.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Das, Anupreeta, Salman Masood, et Hari Kumar. \u00ab\u2009As Truce Seems to Hold, India and Pakistan Both Claim Victory\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 11\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/22\/world\/asia\/kashmir-terrorist-attack.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Das, Anupreeta, Suhasini Raj, et Showkat Nanda. \u00ab\u00a0At Least 24 Tourists Gunned Down by Militants in Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 22\u00a0avril 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/05\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-kashmir-history.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Dolder, Lars. \u00ab\u00a0A Timeline of Tensions Between India and Pakistan Over Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 10\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/kashmir-the-worlds-most-dangerous-conflict\/a-49924773\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>DW<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009Kashmir: The World\u2019s Most Dangerous Conflict\u2009\u00bb. 7\u00a0ao\u00fbt 2019<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/clyzg8ygeezo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ethirajan, Anbarasan. \u00ab\u00a0How Can India and Pakistan Find a Way to De-Escalate?\u00a0\u00bb <em>BBC<\/em>, 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/15\/opinion\/india-pakistan-nuclear-war.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hennigan, W. J. \u00ab\u00a0Nuclear War Avoided, Again. But Next Time?\u00a0\u00bb <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 15\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2025\/5\/20\/how-conflict-with-india-helped-boost-the-pakistan-militarys-domestic-image\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hussain, Abid. \u00ab\u00a0How Conflict with India Helped Boost the Pakistan Military\u2019s Domestic Image\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Al Jazeera<\/em>, 20\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ifri.org\/fr\/notes\/kashmir-uprising-and-india-pakistan-relations-need-conflict-resolution-not-management\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jacob, Happymon. \u00ab\u00a0The Kashmir Uprising and India-Pakistan Relations: A Need for Conflict Resolution, Not Management\u00a0\u00bb. Institut fran\u00e7ais des relations internationales (IFRI), 2016<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/china\/nuclear-collision-course-south-asia\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Krepinevich, Jr., Andrew F. \u00ab\u2009A Nuclear Collision Course in South Asia\u2009\u00bb. <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 26\u00a0mai 2023<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7282263\/india-pakistan-crisis-pahalgam-attack\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kugelman, Michael. \u00ab\u00a0How the India-Pakistan Crisis Could Spiral\u00a0\u00bb. <em>TIME<\/em>, 3\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/india-and-pakistan-in-kashmir-conflict-heavily-armed-rivals\/a-72490542\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Latschan, Thomas. \u00ab\u00a0India and Pakistan in Kashmir Conflict: Heavily Armed Rivals\u00a0\u00bb. <em>DW<\/em>, 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/why-are-india-and-pakistan-on-the-brink-of-war-and-how-dangerous-is-the-situation-an-expert-explains-256125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Lindstaedt, Natasha. \u00ab\u00a0Why Are India and Pakistan on the Brink of War and How Dangerous Is the Situation? An Expert Explains\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The Conversation<\/em>, 7 mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/13\/world\/asia\/trump-india-pakistan-ceasefire.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib. \u00ab\u00a0As Trump Crows Over Ending a Conflict, India\u2019s Leaders Feel Betrayed\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 15\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/11\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-war-analysis.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib. \u00ab\u00a0The Danger for India and Pakistan Has Not Gone Away\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 11\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/11\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-what-we-know.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib. \u00ab\u00a0What We Know About How the 4-Day India-Pakistan Clashes Unfolded\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 11\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/23\/world\/asia\/kashmir-terrorist-attack-explainer.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib, Anupreeta Das, et John Yoon. \u00ab\u2009What to Know About the Tensions Over Kashmir\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 23\u00a0avril 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/04\/26\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-military-kashmir-attack.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib, et Suhasini Raj. \u00ab\u00a0As Tensions Rise with Pakistan, a Moment of Truth for India\u2019s Military\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 26\u00a0avril 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/18\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-conflict.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mashal, Mujib, et Alex Travelli. \u00ab\u00a0Why There\u2019s No Battlefield Solution to India\u2019s Perpetual Pakistan Problem\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 18\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/11\/world\/asia\/kashmir-conflict-eyewitness.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nanda, Showkat. \u00ab\u00a0A Night in Kashmir, Caught Between India and Pakistan\u2019s Fight\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 11\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/16\/world\/asia\/pakistan-military-india.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rehman, Zia ur-. \u00ab\u00a0Fighting India Helps Revive the Pakistani Military\u2019s Popularity\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 16\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00963402.2019.1680049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Robock, Alan, Owen B. Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Lili Xia, Hans M. Kristensen, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl S. Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, et Richard P. Turco. \u00ab\u2009How an India-Pakistan Nuclear War Could Start\u2014and Have Global Consequences\u2009\u00bb. <em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em> 75, n<sup>o<\/sup> 6 (2019): 273\u201179<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/10\/us\/politics\/trump-india-pakistan-nuclear.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sanger, David E., Julian E. Barnes, et Maggie Haberman. \u00ab\u2009Reluctant at First, Trump Officials Intervened in South Asia as Nuclear Fears Grew\u2009\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 10\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/india\/2021-12-17\/tattered-dream-new-kashmir\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shah, Fahad. \u00ab\u00a0The Tattered Dream of a New Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 17\u00a0d\u00e9cembre 2021<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chathamhouse.org\/2025\/05\/rising-tensions-resurface-pakistans-credibility-problem-and-indias-backfiring-policy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shaikh, Farzana. \u00ab\u00a0Rising Tensions Resurface Pakistan\u2019s Credibility Problem\u2013 and India\u2019s Backfiring Policy on Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Chatham House<\/em>, 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/how-the-kashmir-conflict-impacts-indian-pakistani-politics\/a-72516887\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shams, Shamil. \u00ab\u00a0How the Kashmir Conflict Impacts Indian, Pakistani Politics\u00a0\u00bb. <em>DW<\/em>, 12\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/kashmir-an-all-out-india-pakistan-war-is-unlikely\/a-72374249\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shams, Shamil. \u00ab\u00a0Kashmir: An All-Out India-Pakistan War Is Unlikely\u2009\u00bb. <em>DW<\/em>, 28\u00a0avril 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/india\/india-pakistan-kashmir-are-perilously-close-brink\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Singh, Sushant. \u00ab\u00a0India and Pakistan Are Perilously Close to the Brink\u00a0\u00bb. <em>Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 29\u00a0avril 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/7283794\/india-pakistan-kashmir-tensions-timeline-history-conflict\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sutherland, Callum. \u00ab India and Pakistan: A Timeline of Tensions Over Kashmir \u00bb. <em>TIME<\/em>, 8\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/07\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-kashmir-photos.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>The New York Times<\/em>. \u00ab\u2009Images From 4 Days of Conflict and Its Aftermath in India and Pakistan\u2009\u00bb. 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/05\/09\/world\/asia\/india-pakistan-fear.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Travelli, Alex, Hari Kumar, et Suhasini Raj. \u00ab\u00a0Ordinary Indians Are Feeling Jittery About the Escalating Conflict\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The New York Times<\/em>, 9\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\/india-pakistan-strikes-5-essential-reads-on-decades-of-rivalry-and-tensions-over-kashmir-256157\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Williams, Matt. \u00ab\u00a0India-Pakistan Strikes: 5 Essential Reads on Decades of Rivalry and Tensions Over Kashmir\u00a0\u00bb. <em>The Conversation<\/em>, 7\u00a0mai 2025<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ul>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<div data-particle_enable=\"false\" data-particle-mobile-disabled=\"false\" class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-3cf5d47 e-flex e-con-boxed e-con e-parent\" data-id=\"3cf5d47\" data-element_type=\"container\" data-e-type=\"container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"e-con-inner\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-e4814a8 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"e4814a8\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p>La traduction de cette fiche est automatique<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This fact sheet looks at the continuing conflict between India and Pakistan over control of Kashmir. It begins by reviewing the history of tensions around the geographical area, analyses some of the likely causes of the recent renewal of hostilities, and then concludes by looking at how the confrontation is likely to evolve in the years ahead.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":55229,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[235],"tags":[256,225],"class_list":["post-55228","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fiches-actualite","tag-conflits-inde","tag-fiche-actualite"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Le conflit autour du Cachemire - L&#039;IHEDN : Institut des hautes \u00e9tudes de d\u00e9fense nationale<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cette fiche d\u2019actualit\u00e9 se penche sur le conflit persistant entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan au sujet du contr\u00f4le du Cachemire. 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Elle commence par revenir sur l\u2019histoire des tensions autour de la zone g\u00e9ographique, analyse certaines des causes probables du renouvellement r\u00e9cent des hostilit\u00e9s, puis conclut sur les perspectives d\u2019\u00e9volution de l\u2019affrontement dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/en\/fiches-actualite\/le-conflit-autour-du-cachemire\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"L&#039;IHEDN : Institut des hautes \u00e9tudes de d\u00e9fense nationale\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/ihedn\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-26T09:17:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-21T11:47:12+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ihedn.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Fiches-dactualite-27-1024x900.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"900\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"tanguy.morel@ihedn.fr\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Le conflit autour du Cachemire - L&#039;IHEDN : Institut des hautes \u00e9tudes de d\u00e9fense nationale\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Cette fiche d\u2019actualit\u00e9 se penche sur le conflit persistant entre l\u2019Inde et le Pakistan au sujet du contr\u00f4le du Cachemire. 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