Barbara Kunz has a doctorate in political science and is Director of the European Security Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Her research focuses not only on security on the continent, but also on transatlantic security cooperation and the Franco-German defence relationship.
In an interview with the IHEDN on the occasion of the two-year anniversary of Russia's aggression in Ukraine, she details the positions of France, Germany and the countries on Europe's eastern flank, the Baltic states and Scandinavia, vis-à-vis Russia and NATO.
According to her, in Europe, "there are two schools of thought": those who say that Russia must be completely isolated, and others who believe that there is no doubt about the Russian threat, but pragmatically say that "we must find a way to live alongside Russia, to find a minimum of cooperation on arms control" in particular.
The hardliners are on the eastern flank: the Baltic states, Poland and Romania, "countries with historical experiences of Russia that perhaps make them more sceptical about the possibility of living" with it.
France is "rather on the pragmatic side". But "where Germany stands, it's pretty hard to say" today, says the political scientist, whereas during the Cold War it tended to be on the pragmatic side.
Barbara Kunz has "the impression that the debate on the European security architecture has not really started". For it to begin, "France and Germany will have to develop a common vision". France is pushing for European strategic autonomy as a complement to NATO, while Germany is firmly Atlanticist.
While "the Europeans among themselves will no doubt find it difficult to agree on the approach to follow", the impetus may come from the other side of the Atlantic on 6 November: "The decisive factor will be the American elections". According to the researcher, in the event of the election of Trump or another Republican in favour of less involvement by his country in Europe, the idea of European strategic autonomy will come back with a vengeance, because "what other plan B do we have?"
For her, one thing is certain: "The conflict between the West and Russia will not end the day the war in Ukraine ends. We need to be prepared for antagonistic relations in the long term.
