With a doctorate in political science, Nicolas Regaud is the first to be appointed Climate Advisor to the Major General of the French Armed Forces, since spring 2022, in the wake of the adoption of the Climate and Defence strategy of the French Ministry of Defence. He previously held various positions in the field of strategic affairs at the Ministries of the Armed Forces and of Europe and Foreign Affairs, specialising in the Indo-Pacific area in addition to the climate.
HOW IS CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECTING THE DEFENCE SECTOR, IN FRANCE AND ELSEWHERE?
As major players in defence and security, crisis management and peacekeeping, defence institutions are affected at three levels - strategic, operational and operative.
In strategic terms, climate change will make all states more vulnerable, but the most vulnerable are likely to be profoundly destabilised. Take, for example, the very large-scale natural disasters such as those suffered by Pakistan in 2022, when a third of its territory was flooded, or the countries of the Horn of Africa, which experienced several years of devastating drought followed by torrential flooding. These stress tests climatic events, sometimes of biblical proportions, will strike us all, but in the least resilient countries this type of event is likely to amplify all the other factors of internal crisis, provoke population displacements with 'crisis-inducing' effects, and even drag their sub-region into instability.
Climate change will amplify the risks and threats on a global scale. Think also of the growing tensions over access to water in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. In this context, how can armies not be involved? They will very probably be involved in stabilisation or crisis management missions, even if all eyes are currently focused on the risks of high-intensity conflicts and the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In operational terms, it is likely that armies will increasingly be called upon to contribute to humanitarian relief operations following natural disasters. Climate change is increasing the intensity and often the number of these extreme events, and armies around the world often have unique skills and capabilities to help disaster-stricken populations. We therefore need to take action to develop regional cooperation so that we have the organisation and resources to deal with extremely violent climatic shocks in an organised fashion, rather like the FRANZ arrangement which, as early as 1992, enabled cooperation between France, Australia and New Zealand to be organised in terms of relief for disaster-stricken populations in the South Pacific. These frameworks now need to be extended and structured, not only in the Pacific but also in other regions of the world.
"ALL ENVIRONMENTS ARE AFFECTED: OUTER SPACE, AIR, SEA, LAND...".
In operational terms, climate change is already having a major impact on us. There are too many possible examples, so I'll just give a few pointers. What we need to remember is that all environments are affected, from outer space to airspace, from land to sea, on the surface and under the sea.
Thus, the increase in days of extreme heat is affecting and will increasingly affect the operational readiness of forces, while regions affected by high humid temperatures will make operations particularly demanding. Humid heat and salinity exacerbate the problem of corrosion, which is so often forgotten or underestimated. Let's not forget the need to adapt to the rigours of extreme cold, because the Arctic will become a competitive area as it becomes ice-free.
Developing the autonomy of forces, particularly in terms of energy, water and operational readiness maintenance (ORM), is becoming essential for armies committed to adapting to climate change. It is therefore essential for those involved in supporting forces to take MCO into account, particularly with a view to having resilient infrastructures and basing operations on the lightest possible logistical footprint, particularly in terms of energy and water, thereby reducing exposure to threats.
WHAT PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN IMPLEMENTING THE CLIMATE AND DEFENCE STRATEGY ADOPTED BY THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE IN 2022? WHAT ARE ITS MAIN LINES OF ACTION?
The implementation of the orientation and action plan adopted in October 2022, is progressing satisfactorily, sometimes faster than hoped. We need to move quickly, because the climate emergency is here to stay, and every day we see that climate change is accelerating.
The main thrusts of our efforts are centred on developing knowledge of the effects of climate change at all levels - from the international scene to the national level. Developing a forward-looking map of climate risks should enable it to be linked and interlinked with the map of geopolitical risks. But we also need to have tools for large-scale prospective risk mapping, in particular to determine the exposure of our infrastructures to natural risks amplified by climate change, by the middle of the century and beyond. This study has already been carried out, covering more than 4,000 sites in France. But this is only the first stage in a process that should enable us to draw up a long-term adaptation plan.
Knowledge also means forging closer links with scientific research institutions to ensure that the adaptation of armies is based on science. This has led us to set up a knowledge-sharing tool, to organise regular meetings with high-level scientists, and to develop a tool to raise awareness of the defence challenges of climate change. We are also involved in the large-scale deployment of the Climate & Defence fresco, in which more than 400 people have already taken part since the summer of 2023, and which is helping to ensure that all those involved in the Ministry are not only aware of the issues, but are also agents of change.
We have also drawn up a joint forward-looking study on the impact of climate change on the use of forces, which should be approved and published in the next few weeks. This will be a reference document, which can then be adapted by the armed forces, branches and services.
"AT INTERNATIONAL LEVEL, THINGS ARE MOVING FAST, BOTH AT NATO AND WITHIN THE EUROPEAN UNION".
Finally, at the international level, things are moving fast, both at NATO and within the European Union. We are committed to helping launch the NATO Centre of Excellence on Climate and Security, which opened in Montreal in October 2023. Its Chief of Staff is a French officer, and he will be joined next summer by a civilian in charge of doctrine development and standardisation.
At EU level, France was the first Member State to have drawn up a Climate & Defence strategy, but we will be joined by all our partners in the coming months - this is a commitment made as part of the Strategic Compass in March 2022 - which will naturally provide new opportunities for sharing experience and good practice. A European Climate & Defence network has been set up, and we welcomed the members of this network to Paris in July 2023, the day after the international conference organised by the Joint Chiefs of Staff on the implementation of the climate strategy.
These are just a few examples of the actions that have been taken and the initial results, but there is still a long way to go, because the adaptation of armed forces is a very long-term undertaking, which involves not only contributing to sustainable development and mitigation policies, but also maintaining a defence capability that is at the highest level, resilient and adapted to the consequences of what is undoubtedly the greatest strategic challenge of the century.
