THE POSITION OF THE GULF MONARCHIES ON THE WAR IN UKRAINE
Since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, the countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCEAG: Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar) have not aligned themselves with Western positions, even if the Russia-Iran alliance is pushing them towards neutrality.
A non-permanent member of the United Nations Security Council in 2022 and 2023, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) abstained from the February 2022 vote condemning Russian aggression in Ukraine, as did China. "Yet Western partners saw the UAE as a strategic ally because of the defence agreements between them and the close economic and energy cooperation," points out Fatiha Dazi-Héni, a doctor in political science and researcher specialising in the Gulf at the Institut de recherche stratégique de l'École militaire (IRSEM).
But when the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution "demanding that Russia immediately cease the use of force against Ukraine" on 2 March 2022, the UAE, like all the Gulf States, voted in favour. They again supported the resolution of 12 October calling on Russia to reverse its "attempted illegal annexation" of four Ukrainian regions. These countries are also sending financial and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
On the other hand, like the vast majority of countries in the South, they are opposed to economic sanctions against Russia. Similarly, just after the outbreak of the conflict, Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohamed Ben Salman reminded President Macron of his commitment to the OPEC+ energy agreement (OPEC and their ten allies) with Russia. For Bertrand Besancenotformer French ambassador and then government emissary to several Gulf countries, it is "clear that Ukraine is not a priority country for the CCEAG countries, even though Arabia has invested in farmland there to boost its food security".
WHAT EXPLAINS THIS POSITION
On the one hand, "since its military involvement in Syria, Russia has been seen as a key player in the Middle East", notes Bertrand Besancenot. "It is also an essential partner in the energy sector and is seeking to develop its cooperation with the Gulf States in the arms and nuclear sectors".
On the other hand, the Gulf countries no longer have confidence in the reliability of the United States as a guarantor of regional security. "In February 2022, relations were at their worst between Saudi Arabia and the United States, but also with the United Arab Emirates", recalls Fatiha Dazi-Héni: since in 2019, President Trump had chosen not to react to drone and missile strikes in the UAE and Arabia, strikes claimed by the Yemeni Houthi rebels, but certainly linked to Iran. The Gulf monarchies have been left scalded. "The fact that such a historic partner is not supporting them makes them think that they cannot count on them, and they feel extremely vulnerable and are looking for other allies", analyses the researcher. This benefits Russia, but also China.
THE IMPACT OF RUSSIAN-IRANIAN MILITARY COOPERATION
The Gulf States are worried about this cooperation, which changes the situation for the Gulf States, but also for Israel. The delivery of Iranian drones to Russia is contributing to damage to infrastructure in Ukraine. Fatiha Dazi-Héni believes that "if the Russian-Iranian military partnership were to last and grow stronger, it could indeed have a major impact on the Gulf states". The international community fears that Russia is delivering sensitive weapons to the Iranians and that they could use them in theatres of conflict with the Gulf states and Israel. So far, Putin, whose relations with Prime Minister Netanyahu are close, has not taken this step.
DOES THIS CONFLICT STRENGTHEN THE POSITION OF THE GULF COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD?
Before the war, Russia was a major supplier of hydrocarbons to European countries; since the economic sanctions they gradually introduced in response to the war, their demand has mechanically shifted to the Gulf.
By 2022, crude oil deliveries from the Gulf States increased by 12.7 % over one year, compared with a world average of 8.5 %. They have therefore reaped the benefits of oil, which accounts for 70 % of their public finances, and up to 90 % for Saudi Arabia, according to the IMF. As for liquefied natural gas (LNG), Qatar, the world's leading exporter, has seen its position strengthened and is multiplying its contracts, notably in Europe.
In the end, "before the war, between 70 and 80 % of Gulf production was sold to Asian markets, and the majority of Russian black gold production was destined for Europe. With the sanctions, the opposite is true", notes Li-Chen Sim, researcher at the Middle East Institute in the United States. And even if the price of a barrel of crude oil has now fallen back to its pre-war level, this financial windfall and these new, more lucrative markets (richer Europeans are prepared to pay more for supplies) are encouraging the Gulf States to invest in their strategy of economic diversification.
