Competition and international rivalries

Published on :

12 November 2025

This fact sheet looks at international rivalries in the space sector. It begins by reviewing the major stages in the conquest of space, placing it in the context of competition between powers. It then presents the various geopolitical challenges posed by the conquest of space today, particularly in the context of Sino-American rivalry. Finally, it offers some perspectives on the weaponisation of space today.

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Summary

Space exploration emerged as a competitive field during the Cold War. Despite the desire for a framework under international law, attempts at regulation in the late 1960s and 1970s produced only a limited legal framework. With the emergence of the New Space In the 2000s, the situation became even more complex with the arrival on the scene of private players whose role has become decisive.

After a brief phase of international cooperation in the 1990s and 2000s, notably around the International Space Station (ISS), space has once again become the focus of strategic rivalries, as shown by the competition between the United States and China in this field.

Against this backdrop, the question of the weaponisation of space is becoming increasingly important. The issue of space sovereignty appears to be a major challenge, and one that is set to take on even greater importance in the years to come.

Context - From the Cold War to New Space

The discovery of space became a political issue in the 1950s, in the context of the Cold War. At that time, the United States and the USSR began a space race, using the technologies developed in Nazi Germany to produce the V2 missiles. From the outset, the conquest of space was a corollary of the arms race and the mastery of ballistic missile technologies. There was also a dimension of prestige and power, with the publicity of major space «firsts» in rapid succession: less than twelve years separated the launch of the first artificial satellite (Sputnik, in October 1957) and man's first step on the moon (Neil Armstrong, in 1969).^[1]. This race between the two great powers saw the Soviet Union almost systematically outstrip the United States. But the dynamic reversed in the second half of the 1960s, with the Americans catching up. This period also saw the first attempts to regulate space activities. While the 1967 Space Treaty sought to lay the legal foundations for the exploration of space, a number of Conventions, such as the Convention on Space Liability and the Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, were added to it. In 1979, the Agreement Governing the Activities of States on the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies established that all celestial bodies, including their orbits, belong to the international community. In particular, it stipulates that the Moon may only be used for peaceful purposes and that any activity on it must comply with international laws, including the United Nations Charter. After the fall of the USSR in 1991 and the end of the Cold War, regular launches of commercial satellites were accompanied by new ambitions, such as the exploration of Venus and Mars. A period of international cooperation began, with the launch of the first module of the International Space Station (ISS), an exceptional laboratory for scientific experiments in zero gravity. The ISS is home to astronauts from the USA, Russia, Japan and Canada, as well as Europe (France, Italy, etc.), and still exists today.

The 2000s marked the start of a new era in the space industry: the New Space. This is characterised by the massive arrival of private players, start-ups and SMEs in the space sector. In the United States, Jeff Bezos founded Blue Origin in 2000 with the aim of making space more affordable and accessible to as many people as possible. He was followed in 2002 by Elon Musk, who founded SpaceX, which also aims to reduce the cost of and access to space, notably through reusable launchers. These New Space rely on the support of NASA and other state agencies, with whom they sign contracts for specific missions, such as refuelling or transporting astronauts. In China, most space companies were set up after 2015, following legislation authorising commercial space activities.^[2]. Today, the landscape is rapidly expanding, with more than 100 companies in the New Space. These companies benefit from growing domestic demand for satellite launches and access to space. However, the intervention of these new American players marks the beginning of a new space age on a global scale. This is centred on privatisation, innovation and cost reduction in low earth orbit.

Analysis - Sino-American rivalry in space

Today, this trend is growing, and Blue Origin and SpaceX have gained in visibility and influence, thanks in particular to large-scale communications operations such as the highly publicised flight of Blue Origin's New Shepard rocket in April 2025, carrying several celebrities. SpaceX is also regularly in the spotlight for its spectacular advances, notably the flights of its Starship launcher. But this commercial dimension should not obscure the fact that this interplay of players also has a geopolitical dimension, in a framework that is more fragmented than in the days of the Cold War. The Sino-American rivalry has become more pronounced in recent years. In particular, this has centred on the recapture of the Moon.^[3]. In 2019, the Americans set up the Artemis programme, which aims to return to the Moon with manned missions and launchers such as the SLS (a super-heavy space launcher developed by NASA) and SpaceX's Starship rocket. China, meanwhile, is developing its own lunar station, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), with the aim of setting up lunar bases and sending crews there by 2030.^[4].

In the same way, the conquest of Mars is emerging as a continuation of this space competition, which is becoming ever more distant. Indeed, Donald Trump has stated his intention to place the American flag on Mars before 2030. Using the Starship launcher, the idea is to use the Moon as a springboard: NASA's overall strategy, known as «Moon to Mars», provides for a technical, logistical and scientific sequence of missions from the lunar surface to Mars. To this end, the Artemis missions are being used to test living and working on the Moon in partial-gravity habitats, in order to reduce the costs associated with Martian expeditions. For the time being, however, there are still a number of technical obstacles in the way of this project, making its prospects highly uncertain. China, for its part, is following a similar trajectory. The country has already flown a Mars mission (Tianwen-1 in 2021) and is preparing a mission to return Martian samples to Earth in 2028 (Tianwen-2). China's objectives also include a first manned mission to Mars around 2033, following on from its robotic successes and the modernisation of its Long March launchers.

Finally, the rivalry between China and the United States also revolves around space connectivity constellations. These play a highly strategic role, as they enable the flow of information and in particular military communications in conflict zones. SpaceX's Starlink constellation currently dominates the market, with more than 8,000 satellites already in orbit (the goal is to reach 40,000) providing worldwide broadband internet coverage. For its part, China is developing several megaconstellations, including Guowang (13,000 satellites planned) and Qianfan (also known as Thousand Sails), with several dozen satellites currently launched. Through these constellations, Beijing is seeking to provide independent connectivity on a national and even global scale, and to ensure China's digital sovereignty. In geostationary orbit, China carried out unprecedented operations in 2025 to bring satellites closer together and potentially refuel them, which could change the way constellations are managed and extend their lifespan. These projects are led by public entities (China Satellite Network Group, a branch of the CASC) and regional entities (Shanghai Spacecom Satellite Technology), and aim to secure national communications as well as competing with American networks.

The race for space constellations is therefore not limited to civil connectivity, but is part of a dynamic of digital and military power, with each country seeking to control its own infrastructures to avoid strategic dependence on the other. China, for example, is looking to build up its power rapidly, with massive launches (up to nine satellites in 25 days in August 2025) to make up for lost time with Starlink. To make themselves less dependent, Europeans are seeking to develop their own resilience and secure satellite interconnection infrastructure.^[5].

Perspectives - The weaponisation of space?

In the light of these developments, the idea of a «militarisation» or weaponisation of space is frequently raised.^[6]. To date, there are no weapons positioned in space that could target the Earth. On the other hand, many dual-use technologies exist, i.e. for civilian and military use. This vagueness considerably complicates the introduction and application of binding regulations. An observation satellite can be used both to monitor deforestation and to locate military infrastructures. What's more, technologies capable of aiming at targets in space from space exist, even if they are banned. In 1962, the United States carried out a nuclear test in space that rendered many satellites inoperable. Since then, other technologies have been tried. In the 1970s, for example, the Soviet Almaz station experimented with the installation of an orbiting cannon on a satellite. More recently, and more indirectly, a Russian satellite was spotted near a Franco-Italian satellite. This was a «forager» satellite, capable of interfering with the operation of a target. Faced with this situation, France is developing the Laser Toutatis system, which aims to equip defence satellites with a laser capable of neutralising any suspicious object approaching them. In conclusion, space, like any common space, is a place of cooperation but also of competition, where strategic opportunities must be identified.

[1] Naja, Géraldine. «European intergovernmental space policies». Annales des Mines - Industrial realities, May 2919 (2), 6-12.

[2] Julienne, Marc. «China's space ambitions», IFRI, 20 January 2021.

[3] The last time men set foot on the Moon was during the Apollo 17 mission in December 1972.

[4] Julienne, Marc. «China will send a new crew to its space station». IFRI, 23 April 2025.

[5] The next fact sheet, devoted to Space and the EU, will look at this question.

[6] Coutant, Katia. «Arsenalisation de l'espace : quelles armes, quelles menaces, quel droit ?, The Conversation, 27 July 2025.

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