Poland

On the other hand, Donald Tusk's resolutely pro-European stance and his party's membership of the largest political group in the European Parliament, the European People's Party (EPP), have enabled Poland to play a major role in the European elections of 2024. His close adviser, Piotr Serafin, has been appointed Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud and Public Administration.^[1]. An important portfolio given the discussions on the potential joint financing of the European defence effort. Added to this is the fact that Poland took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 January.^er January 2025. Its slogan «Security, Europe» clearly reflects the priorities of the Tusk government in a fragile international political context.

Poland wants to make an impact and has been asserting itself as a new military power since 2014, seeking to strengthen and increase its military capabilities. In particular, it is launching a plan to modernise the Polish army, with 14 billion euros of investment planned.^[2]. In 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it plans to increase the defence budget to at least 3% of GDP from 2023 and aims to double the number of military personnel to 300,000 by 2035. Poland currently spends 4.7% of its GDP on defence, and aims to build Europe's leading land army. To achieve this, the various political forces, otherwise highly polarised, have managed to reach agreement via the law on the Defence of the Nation, which forms the basis for rearmament. Poland currently has 200,000 military personnel, including 130,000 professionals as well as reservists and volunteers in the territorial forces.^[3]. They also have more tanks and artillery than other European countries.^[4]. We are in a transitional phase; some of the equipment is old, dating from the Soviet period, and some of it - particularly the tanks - has been handed over to the Ukrainians. For this reason, the country is investing heavily in the expansion and modernisation of its army. If the equipment acquisition targets are met, Poland should become Europe's leading army by 2035.^[5]. By this date, Poland wants to have a defence capable of combating the Russian threat.

Indeed, the latter is the priority of Polish defence policy and has given rise to major strategic choices in recent years. Before the war in Ukraine, the Poles relied on an elastic defence to retreat and recapture lost territory with the help of NATO allies in the event of a Russian attack. But this approach was abandoned following the massacres committed by the Russians at Boutcha, on the outskirts of Kyiv. In practical terms, this involves reinforcing the existing defence infrastructures on the borders with Russia and Belarus.^[6]. These borders are largely wild, bordered by thick forests, swamps and hundreds of lakes. They do, however, have vulnerable points, such as the Suwalki corridor in the north-east, or the «Brest Gate», named after the town in Belarus, a strip of land 80 kilometres wide that has been used many times in history for east-west troop movements. Warsaw is only 160 kilometres from this area. The government therefore undertook the (re)construction of a firm and fixed line of defence, known as the «Eastern Shield». Decided at the end of 2024, this line of defence will include walls, mines, ditches and bunkers to prevent Russian forces from penetrating Poland. Heavy, light and technological, these defences stretch over 700 kilometres and should be operational in 2028. They have forward defence capabilities, including very powerful long-range artillery to deal with threats in depth, up to a distance of 150 to 300 kilometres. This large-scale border is seen as a bulwark designed to protect the whole of Europe, not just Poland. It is also designed to in fine, In January 2024, the Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians announced that they would integrate the «Baltic Defence Line», a network of fortified positions including bunkers and «anti-mobility defensive installations».

The main aim of these lines of defence is to deter Russia. But Poland's position as a «European bulwark» also makes it a key player in the defence of Europe, giving it influence in debates and the ability to demand that regional issues - and in particular the future of Ukraine - are not debated without it, as was the case for Minsk 2 in 2015.