Sweden and Finland

Behind the real convergence of their security interests and the evolution of their international postures, Finland and Sweden offer distinct defence policy models. After the Cold War, Sweden reorganised its military system to focus on international crisis management missions, while Finland structured its defence policy around the principle of territorial defence. Finland has maintained compulsory military service since its introduction in 1918, while Sweden suspended it in 2010 and reintroduced it in 2017.

In the face of the Russian threat, both countries have strengthened their defence and deterrence capabilities. In 2025, Sweden's annual defence budget reached SEK 143 billion (approximately €12.8 billion), representing 2.4 % of GDP, an increase of more than 14 % over one year.^[4]. The 2025-2030 military programming law projects that 2.6 % of GDP will be devoted to defence in 2028. This represents a clear break with the years 2000 to 2022, when the average budget was just over 1 % of GDP. In Finland, a similar dynamic is at work, with defence spending almost doubling in absolute terms between 2021 and 2023, leading to the threshold of 2 % of GDP being exceeded. In 2024, the Finnish defence effort will amount to 6.46 billion euros, or 2.3 % of GDP.

The rearmament observed in both countries is also reflected in the increase in the number of military personnel. In December 2023, the Swedish armed forces comprised 25,600 active servicemen and 11,450 reservists.^[5]. Military service, reinstated in 2017, lasts between nine and fifteen months, with selection based on motivation and qualifications. Approximately 8,000 young people are selected each year from among 110,000 potential conscripts, on the basis of medical, psychological and physical tests. However, the Swedish authorities are aiming to increase this figure to 12,000 conscripts a year by 2032. Finland, with a population of around 5.5 million, almost half that of Sweden, nevertheless has a higher number of military personnel. In 2023, the Finnish armed forces will have 24,400 active soldiers, with a wartime mobilisation capacity of up to 280,000 soldiers, thanks to a pool of 870,000 reservists who have completed their military service.^[6]. These numbers make Finland NATO's third largest military power behind the United States and Turkey. The Finnish army is based on a system of compulsory military conscription for all men aged between 18 and 60, who must serve six, nine or twelve months, depending on their speciality and rank. Women aged between 18 and 30 can enlist voluntarily. According to some analyses, this model substantially strengthens the resilience of the population, as shown by surveys indicating that nearly three quarters of Finns declare themselves ready to defend their country.^[7]. This state of mind is part of the culture of the sisu, This is a concept deeply rooted in Finnish identity, denoting a form of courage, tenacity and determination in the face of adversity.

When it comes to armaments, Sweden stands out for its strong defence industry, one of the largest in Europe. By 2022, it will be worth around $3 billion, of which over $2.5 billion will be exported.^[8]. Companies such as Saab, which manufactures, among other things, fighter aircraft Gripen, These countries supply some of the most technologically advanced equipment on the arms market. According to the latest available SIPRI data for the period 2020-2024, Sweden ranks 14th in the world in terms of the number of weapons produced.^e one of the world's largest arms exporters^[9]. Against the backdrop of the Russian threat, the Swedish arms industry is undergoing significant development. The challenge is to support the Ukrainian war effort, but also to replenish national stocks.

In addition to military production, Sweden has a highly skilled private sector when it comes to technology. This success is based on close partnerships between the public and private sectors, substantial funding for research and development, and an education system that ranks among the best in the world. Sweden is also home to technology leaders such as Ericsson, the world's second largest supplier of networks and Hexagon, a specialist in industrial software. It also stands out for its ecosystem of startups This has earned it the nickname of «Europe's Silicon Valley».

Although Finland does not have any major industrial groups in the defence sector, with the notable exception of Patria and Nammo, In addition to its industrial base of highly specialised small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly in dual-use technologies. This fast-growing sector exports between 40 % and 60 % of its production, for a volume estimated at around 2 billion dollars in 2024.^[10]. Faced with the war in Ukraine, the Finnish authorities are seeking to strengthen these industries, in particular by releasing funds for sectors deemed strategic, namely defence, cybersecurity and the New Space.

The war in Ukraine also highlights the total defence model, initially developed after the Second World War. Adopted by the Nordic countries, this approach is based on a fundamental principle: the protection of a State cannot be limited to the armed forces alone, but requires the coordinated mobilisation of the whole of society, civil and military, in which each player plays an essential role and makes his or her own contribution to defence. Based on the idea that «everyone can contribute and has a duty to contribute», the total defence model is based on six essential pillars that guarantee the country's resilience:

1. military defence, encompassing not only the armed forces but also the systems and operations needed to prevent or manage conflict, while ensuring the sustainability of military capabilities;
2. critical infrastructure, including basic services such as electricity, water, gas and waste management, essential to the continuity of strategic operations;
3. construction materials, such as steel and cement, needed to maintain physical infrastructure during periods of crisis;
4. communications, cyber security and systems security;
5. health, including medical equipment and access to essential goods;
6. transport and logistics.

The example of Finland, where preparedness exercises for civilians are organised several times a year, is a good illustration of this «total defence» concept. The government has also introduced a so-called «72-hour» campaign, which encourages every household to keep a three-day supply of essential equipment in case of a crisis. Distrust of Russia is also evident in the way the country is organised, with public bunkers built into schools, hospitals and buildings to house a total of 4.4 million people. Sweden, for example, has updated and distributed to five million households the guide «In the event of crisis or war» drawn up by the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency in November 2024. This document provides practical recommendations aimed at preparing the Swedish population both mentally and logistically.