Sign of the times: in September 2021, at the World Congress of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) in Marseille, the French government presented "the biodiversity conservation strategy of the Ministry of the Armed Forces".
The minister at the time, Florence Parly, warned Let's be aware that the depletion of natural resources, droughts, floods, rising sea levels and the erosion of coral reefs are not just natural events, or even just human events. They are also strategic events. They redraw the maps. They create new tensions. They displace populations, create new fault lines, new conflicts. They amplify traditional threats.
CLIMATE CHANGE AMPLIFIES THREATS TO GLOBAL SECURITY
This changing climate is affecting the defence sector in a number of ways: strategically; in terms of the armed forces themselves and their equipment; and finally, in terms of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).
From a strategic point of view, the Anthropocene ("the age of man") "marks not only a change of geological era, but also a change in power relations and political systems", notes researcher François Gemenne.
By multiplying the occurrence of meteorological events and increasing their violence, climate change is putting additional pressure on already conflict-ridden areas and exacerbating tensions, in sub-Saharan Africa for example. As a result, these areas are approaching a "threshold of social breakdown", as noted by researchers Julia Tasse and François Gemenne, co-directors of theDefence and Climate Observatoryat the last "IHEDN Monday.
Another consequence is in the Arctic, where melting ice is fuelling international economic competition, particularly for mining and energy resources. "Over the last fifteen years or so, we've seen a boom in military capabilities in this sector," notes Nicolas Regaud, climate adviser to the Major General of the French Armed Forces, in the dossier devoted to the subject by Esprit Défense magazine in summer 2022.
Nicolas Regaud explains: "In 2013, when we arrived in the Sahel as part of Operation Serval, computers broke down because of the heat, and the soles of shoes came unstuck. In some countries, particularly in the Middle East, dust storms are both more frequent and more intense. The sand prevents you from seeing, complicates your progress and has major effects on engines and health.
GLOBAL WARMING SLOWS SHIPS DOWN
In another example, warmer marine waters cause micro-organisms to accumulate on ships' hulls, slowing their progress, increasing their energy consumption and necessitating more port calls. With military bases all over the world, France is subject to "the full range of climatic risks - rising sea levels, cyclones, forest fires, flood waves, extreme heat", says Nicolas Regaud.
Of course, it is not alone. In early 2019, the Pentagon published an alarming report on the vulnerability of US bases to climate change. In October 2018, Hurricane Michael devastated Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida, causing an estimated $4.7 billion in damage. In March 2019, the Offutt air base in Nebraska was completely paralysed by flooding on the Mississippi.
But the world's poorest regions are the most affected, with the West Indies, the Indo-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa in the lead. In 2020 alone, 30 million people were displaced by natural disasters. In the Nile basin, access to water is causing increasing tension between populations and states (Sudan, Egypt and Ethiopia).
Lake Chad, on the borders of Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Cameroon, has lost 90% of its surface area in 60 years, and could disappear within 20 years. The jihadist group Boko Haram, in particular, is taking advantage of this to expand, causing 2.3 million displaced persons to date.
The HADR dimension of armed forces missions is therefore increasingly in demand. For example, when Cyclone Idai hit Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe in March 2019, the French Navy sent three ships to help deliver food aid and evacuate at-risk areas: the frigates Lafayette and Nivôse, and the helicopter carrier Tonnerre. This event, the most violent for 20 years in southern Africa, caused 1,000 deaths and 2 million people were affected.
A STRUCTURAL AND SUSTAINABLE TRANSFORMATION FOR DEFENCE
In November 2021, at the Paris Peace Forum, the defence ministers of 22 countries published a joint declaration "Climate change and armed forces". Four other States have since joined, and in France, this declaration led to the adoption in spring 2022 of the Climate and Defence strategy of the Ministry of Defence.
It focuses on four areas:
- to develop knowledge and the ability to anticipate the strategic challenges of climate change;
- adapting defence systems to the foreseeable upheavals caused by climate change;
- continue the contribution of the Ministry of the Armed Forces to collective efforts in the area of mitigation and energy transition;
- Intensify cooperation on defence issues relating to climate change within the Ministry, interdepartmentally and internationally.
According to Nicolas Regaud, "the key word is to ensure the resilience of combatants, infrastructure and equipment, so that we can conduct operations anywhere and under any circumstances, despite an increasingly restrictive environmental context. This new situation applies to both hot and cold weather.
In practical terms, the actions already underway cover a number of areas. In terms of infrastructure, greenhouse gas emissions from the French armed forces have been cut by a third since 2010. This is accompanied by an energy strategy to combat the armed forces' dependence on fossil fuels: in addition to the electrification of mobility, research and development into biofuels is a major focus. Seven types of synthetic fuel are already certified (from wood residues, vegetable or animal oils, etc.).
MIGRATORY BIRDS PUT TO WORK
The 'long-term emergency' dimension has also been strengthened: the French Navy is heavily involved in the fight against illegal fishing, and has recognised expertise in responding to marine pollution and other environmental disasters.
More generally, our armed forces' know-how is an asset when it comes to structural change, and gives them a great capacity for innovation. This is particularly evident in the development of low-carbon technologies and the eco-design of equipment.
This is the case with the "eco-camp" concept. In external operations (OPEX), the implementation of a specific petroleum support system requires a large-scale logistical manoeuvre, a factor of vulnerability to the actions of the adversary. With equipment and systems becoming increasingly energy-hungry, the challenge is to control the use of fossil fuels, thereby reducing the carbon footprint. With this in mind, the Defence Infrastructure Service is developing an eco-camp model capable of reducing consumption by 40% by 2030, while increasing energy and water self-sufficiency. This system will be tested this year in OPEX.
In the Indo-Pacific, where sea levels are rising four times faster than elsewhere (and where the security impact of climate change is France's number one strategic priority), the army is also benefiting from scientific research involving... birds. The Kivi Kuaka programme in French Polynesia involves ringing migratory birds to observe their behaviour in the run-up to climatic events such as cyclones and tsunamis. Ultimately, this programme could help the armed forces to be better prepared for such disasters, and thus better protect the population.
