On 8 December, the think-tank Eastern Circles and the IHEDN organised a one-day event at the École Militaire in partnership with Diplomatie Magazine on the four fronts of the war in Ukraine: informational, economic, military and diplomatic. For this last round table, international specialists from Ukraine, India, China and Africa presented their analyses, which describe an increasingly 'multi-aligned' world behind the Western positions that are quite familiar in our latitudes.
Hosted by Canadian security consultant Yan St-Pierre, the meeting brought together researchers from the following fields Swasti Raofrom the Manohar Parikkar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses in New Delhi (India), Niagalé BagayokoDirector of the African Security Sector Network (ASSN), and Velina Tchakarovadirector of the FACE think-tank based in Vienna (Austria) and a specialist in China, and the researcher Hennadiy Maksakdirector of the Ukrainian Prism think-tank based in Kyiv (Ukraine).
India's position in the conflict poorly understood in the West
For Swasti Rao, the war in Ukraine came at a time when India was "at the peak of its global intersectional moment": presidency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the G20, a successful mission to the Moon, an unprecedented increase in its technological and defence links with the West, etc. "But at the same time, India has continued its engagement with Russia, and will continue to do so". The researcher asks herself: "Are we experiencing this intersectional global moment because of our neutrality in the Russian-Ukrainian war, or in spite of that neutrality?"
"Initially, the Indian position in this war was less well understood in the West", she notes, "but this understanding has changed" in view of India's concern for strategic autonomy and its need to respond to the "3 Fs" crisis it is experiencing: fuel, food and fertilisers (fuel, food and fertiliser). It is this crisis that has led it to continue buying oil from Russia.
India achieves its strategic autonomy through its "multi-alignment". "It is now completely different from what it was during the Cold War: from being rather passive, it is now very active indeed. In her view, India is in the process of "recalibrating" its Russian strategy, since Russia "is being pushed around by China", with which India has a number of disputes, notably over borders. "India will need a great deal of stability in the world order if it is to continue its economic success, and that is precisely why it is so closely aligned with the West when it comes to the Indo-Pacific.
does russia want to destroy the european security order?
Velina Tchakarova analyses the "Russian calculation" both in the context of the bilateral Russia-China relationship and in that of Russia's multilateral relationship with the "Global South". "What we need to understand is that this calculation is not only aimed at the primary objective of subjugating Ukraine, but also at two other equally important objectives."
One is "the destruction of the European security order as we have known it for 30 years". The other, and most important, objective is not without China: "To gain pole position in the systemic competition that is emerging between China and the United States". "For me", continues Velina Tchakarova, "24 February 2022 also marked the start of the Cold War between the United States on the one hand and the bear-dragon on the other, in other words the China-Russia modus operandi that does not require entering into any kind of military or strategic alliance in the Western sense".
"Russia sees itself as a " game changer "Russia needs Russia for four reasons, according to the researcher. China needs Russia for four reasons, according to the researcher: as an outlet for its goods; for its technology as part of the fourth industrial revolution; for diplomacy, with the shared concern to impose new rules of the game; and, in practice, for the new alliances that these partners are forging.
As far as Africa is concerned, for Niagalé Bagayoko, the war in Ukraine has made visible a phenomenon that has been developing for "at least a decade, if not 20 years: the fact that most African countries have diversified their partnerships". Why has this happened? The main reason is that "friendly European countries, multilateral partners such as the European Union and the United Nations, but also African multilateral organisations, have completely failed to deal with the type of insecurity facing certain regions, particularly the Sahel".
The Cold War system totally challenged
The Congo and Sudan show the same thing: "The whole system defined at the end of the Cold War to prevent, manage and resolve conflicts has been totally challenged. It is in this context that we are witnessing the re-emergence of Russia, because it is a re-emergence". As a result, when they had to take a stance on the war in Ukraine, "most African states made it clear that they are ready to develop relations with powers that share their interests". In Africa, too, the trend is towards "multi-alignment".
Hennadiy Maksak is a researcher but, as debate moderator Yan St-Pierre pointed out, he is also very active in promoting Ukrainian foreign policy. "Our diplomacy is now like playing chess on several boards at once", he said.
These chessboards are numerous, and the Ukrainian detailed them one by one. The first is at the level of international organisations: "We are trying to forge coalitions within the United Nations General Assembly so that it adopts binding and non-binding resolutions, indicating where Russian aggression is taking place and what the consequences are". These efforts are aimed not only at Ukraine's Western allies, but also at "our partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America".
Another area is sanctions, "since it is also important to deprive Russia of the resources that fuel its war of aggression". "The process is mixed", admits Hennadiy Maksak, but in comparison with the 2014-2021 period, progress is significant: "We now have 11 sanctions packages and we are in the process of negotiating a twelfth." The next point is that "our diplomats are working to secure arms deliveries. Here too, developments are positive, with the 50+ coalition, which is much broader than the EU and the United States.
3 to 5 billion $ per month to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat
The financial arena is also crucial: "We are unable to keep our economy on track without the support of external partners", the Ukrainian researcher frankly admits. "The figure fluctuates, but we need between 3 and 5 billion dollars a month just to keep our social system afloat, because all the money we generate in Ukraine is spent on military objectives to defend ourselves.
Among other issues, Hennadiy Maksak mentions the judicial dimension, with plans to set up a special tribunal to investigate Russian aggression and war crimes, and the reconstruction of the country, its schools and hospitals, which could be carried out using frozen Russian funds. He also stresses the importance of the security architecture, in particular "Euro-Atlantic integration".
Ukraine also plays on the "multi-alignment" of its partners: "When we talk to different partners, we can include them in different coalitions. For example, the "Grain for Ukraine" coalition has 38 partners; if it's the Ramstein Group (editor's note: for arms issues), it's the 50+; for work on peace, the last meeting, in Malta, brought together more than 80 countries".
Depending on what is needed, Ukraine therefore calls on different partners in different coalitions. "This is the approach we have adopted for this second year of the war," sums up Hennadiy Maksak.
Find out more about the round table "Diplomatic wars, or how to win new and preserve old allies". on the YouTube channel of the Defence Academy of the École Militaire
