The possible future of urban combat

A specialist in combat in urban areas, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul Sédivy answered questions from the IHEDN to expand on our article on this subject, analysing the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine and assessing the impact of ongoing technological change.

Current second-in-command of the Centre national d'entraînement commando - 1er Shock Regiment, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul Sédivy was, until the summer of 2024, head of the studies and forecasting unit of the Urban Action Training Centre (CENZUB - 94e Infantry Regiment). After his article in the Revue militaire générale (RMG N°59, June 2024) of the Future Combat Command, he answers our questions to extend our article.

WHY CAN URBAN COMBAT BE SEEN AS A LABORATORY FOR HIGH-INTENSITY CONFLICT?

First of all, if we consider high-intensity conflict to be the benchmark of modern combat, then from a geographical point of view, the urban area can be seen as the most likely battlefield of the future. It is estimated that half the world's population will be concentrated in cities by 2050, bringing with them vital points of interest in terms of politics, economics, health, security and information - all areas of confrontation.

Then let's look at recent events. In the context of high intensity, the asymmetrical conflict in Ukraine shows that the city has regained its role as a symbolic objective to stun a nation. (Battle of Kiev - Hostomel airport on 24 February 2022) or operative to break a front line (Kharkiv, Marioupol, Bakhmout, Robotyne). Asymmetric conflicts are not left behind, as the operations in the Gaza Strip attest. Indeed, since Operation 'Cast Lead' carried out by Tsahal in 2009, air superiority is no longer enough to bring down the enemy without a footprint on the ground. And the democratisation of new technologies, such as drones, only reinforces this phenomenon by facilitating hybridisation. This is why the city is undoubtedly the last 'chiaroscuro' in which conflicts can be expressed.. Almost every field is being shaken up, including the law, as demonstrated by the "Atlantean Sea" operation in Gaza.

In reality, urban combat probably represents a form of high-intensity laboratory because it uses both the physical and the immaterial as battlefields, which anchors it in the modernity of a "competition-contestation- confrontation" dialectic. Indeed, the impact of modern high-intensity conflicts on the battlefield is as much to be found in actions below the threshold of conflict as in the hybridisation of means.

"A HETEROGENEOUS, DIFFICULT, ROUGH AND COMPARTMENTALISED ENVIRONMENT".

Above all, the urban area has features that continue to challenge modern thinking and new technologies. This three-dimensional, uncertain and complex space complicates the whole organisation of operations and requires the physical and moral endurance that is consubstantial with high intensity.. In this heterogeneous, difficult, rough and compartmentalised environment, where the disorganisation of the terrain following combat amplifies the obstacles to observation, movement and communication, the threat of getting bogged down is permanent.

By its proportions and structure on the one hand, and by its material and immaterial networks and population volume on the other, urban combat concentrates the conditions of high intensity embodied by geographical concentration and entanglement. Furthermore, the importance of robust logistics in modern high-intensity conflicts is significant. The transition to a war economy must compensate for the over-consumption of resources. The urban area represents a logistical challenge at the end of the supply chain, with the aim of prevailing on the micro-theatre front.

Also, if the state of confusion is unique to the terrestrial environment, the city exacerbates this phenomenon. In a context of constant and rapid change, choosing the city as a battleground requires a global approach, with an often long-term commitment at the heart of populations, alongside partner forces, in the face of multiple conventional or hybrid threats.

WHY IS THE ROLE OF SURPRISE EVEN MORE IMPORTANT IN URBAN AREAS? CAN YOU GIVE AN EXAMPLE?

The preponderance in the city of effects in immaterial fields, linked to the development of networks, digitisation and artificial intelligence, gives surprise a key role. This is mainly the result of deception operations, commonly defined as "an effect resulting from measures designed to deceive the adversary by leading him to a false interpretation of friendly attitudes with a view to inducing him to react in a manner prejudicial to his own interests and reducing his capacity to respond. Deception includes dissimulation, diversion and intoxication".

To this end, a deception operation combines planned and coordinated actions designed to present the opponent with a tactical dilemma. The aim is to fix him physically and psychologically in a zone that is not that of the friendly effort, in order to hit him while his decision-making cycle is disrupted. However, its value also lies in the effect it has on an opponent's morale. However, this action is not limited to making the opponent think in a certain way, but also to making him act, and there is always a risk that the opponent's reaction will be the opposite of what was expected.

Tree structure of the components and sub-components of deception. (OPSEC: operational security)

The instantaneous capacity of the force to conduct a deception operation can be measured from the operational capacity at a given moment T, subtracted from the force volume to be devoted to the reserved element (minimum tactical level of N-1).

We can consider that the volume of forces to be devoted to a deception mission corresponds to a volume of forces at tactical level N-1.

I do not have enough documentary sources to apply these general principles to the recent confrontations that have made the news. However, two examples strike me as interesting to study from this angle. They illustrate two different uses of the surprise associated with the urban area.

On the one hand, a fairly classic combination: the attack by Hamas on the State of Israel on 7 October 2023.. It certainly presupposes the ability to use all the elements of deception to create surprise, while applying the principle of the volume of forces involved and the ability to exercise subsidiarity in the exploitation phase. It takes advantage of the different strata of the city and targets the civilian population as a priority. It thus has an immediate effect on the Israeli moral forces, while at the same time making media exploitation of Israeli reprisals unavoidable.

On the other hand, a multi-focus combination: the Ukrainian offensive launched on 6 August 2024 in the border oblast of Kursk. This represents a strategic surprise that is certainly based on the tactical use of urban and peri-urban areas to present the enemy with a dilemma that is repeated at every town. Each town has to choose whether to :

  • be bypassed to preserve the potential and pace of a reconquest manoeuvre;
  • be isolated by setting up a siege, which should be enough to freeze the situation locally and possibly create the conditions for a recapture;
  • be defended in order to create a point of attachment capable of generating wear ;
  • Kursk was conquered as a place of power and wealth, or for its tactical or symbolic nature, the name of Kursk resonating in the narrative of the Russian powers that be.

HOW DOES THE PRESENCE OF THE POPULATION CHANGE THE NATURE OF THE FIGHT, COMPARED WITH AN OPEN ENVIRONMENT?

Urban areas are characterised by a concentration of human activity that has only increased in the 21st century. Since 2007, the proportion of the world's population living in urban environments has exceeded that living in rural areas.

The presence of a residual civilian population in a town should always be taken as a given. As a result, it represents a challenge, particularly in terms of health, but also a risk that the action will be thwarted, particularly in legal terms, and in terms of influence and legitimacy. Indeed, in the case of a crowd, this population can represent an obstacle by its mere presence and inertia, or even a threat. What's more, crowd behaviour can be harnessed, manipulated and exploited by adversaries because of its irrational and unpredictable nature, as well as its emotionalism. The forms of action of a hostile crowd can be, for example, aggression and intimidation, demonstrations and blockades, human shields, protection or concealment of adversaries. The presence of a population therefore influences the nature and number of confrontation areas available to the belligerents.

The city's many vulnerabilities are destabilising factors. The interaction of human activities, the number and complexity of social networks and the precariousness of public services make cities highly vulnerable and their organisation highly unstable. Any military engagement affects the city's overall functional system to a greater or lesser extent, and has consequences for economic, social, health, security and political balances. It is therefore important to preserve essential services and infrastructures as far as possible, so as not to restrict the military operation in terms of both its manoeuvrability and its legitimacy. A rapid return to normalcy in the life of the city means that the tactical victory is not the only victory, which in itself carries the seeds of a strategic and operational impasse. Certain types of habitat encapsulate all these vulnerabilities. This is the case of informal settlements such as shanty towns, which are expanding rapidly worldwide and represent an inevitable extension of the urban area.

AN "OPERATIONAL AND MEDIA SOUNDING BOARD".

In addition, the mass distribution of data and its amplification by the growing connectivity of objects and people produce operational chaos. The interconnection of intertwined human groups and organisations therefore represents a cognitive challenge. In addition, technical domination is tending to become relative in the fields of information and cybernetics. In this context, the urban area's role as an operational and media sounding board is strengthened. Controlling and contesting it are priority objectives for the competition in the field of perceptions. This phenomenon is facilitated by the presence of the urban population as a target audience, and amplified by the globalisation of relations between societies, the densification of human flows and the expansion of material and immaterial fields, all of which lead to a contraction of spaces. In fact, while material mobility enables people to move in and around the city, immaterial mobility enables city players to connect with the world in real time, well beyond the city walls.

What's more, the presence of a population generates specific risks, such as the CBRN and cyber threats. The urban environment is home to a large number of industrial, technological, commercial and hospital infrastructures, as well as numerous supply networks that can be a source of radiological, biological or chemical (RBC) risks and threats.

These risks and threats may originate from an accidental cause (risk) or a malicious one (threat). The density of CBR facilities coupled with a high concentration of units and population increases the danger by offering privileged targets that are easy to hit. The combination of CBRN risks and threats and the specific characteristics of urban areas can have serious consequences for manoeuvres, which need to be taken into account right from the planning stage. In addition, the installation of wireless telecommunications networks, the ongoing widespread use of fibre optics and the development of connectivity through the addition of sensors are helping to connect more and more collective systems and buildings via the Internet. Electronic innovation in urban spaces is experiencing strong growth, with an ever-widening range of applications. Connectivity is already being applied on a daily basis in many areas that are critical to the smooth running of a city:

  • Management of electricity infrastructure, water distribution and urban traffic regulation networks;
  • Real-time mapping and location of human activities;
  • Remote control of heating, electricity and security systems.

 

Hijacking these resources can be used to gather intelligence (detection, surveillance, reconnaissance) or to destabilise government services and local authorities. Compromising these networks is a way of attacking the essential needs of the population from a distance and below the threshold of conflict. In the end, this makes it possible to produce physical, cognitive and emotional effects that contribute to gaining the upper hand, without exposing oneself too much.

WHAT LESSONS CAN WE LEARN FROM THE MOST RECENT BATTLES IN URBAN AREAS, IN UKRAINE AND GAZA?

Recent urban battles confirm the disinhibition of belligerents and the hybridisation of means.

However, they still demonstrate that the principles of action in urban areas adopted by our army remain credible:

In this context, the new tools created by technological advances do not represent innovative modes of action, but rather new resources made available to the tactical leader to produce unchanged effects in additional fields of confrontation.

However, this is not the case, the context of hybridisation and disinhibition of the belligerents calls into question the interpretation of the law as a new field of action to mitigate the constraint linked to the very significant losses in urban areas. Tsahal's "Atlantis Sea" operation in the Gaza Strip has shown that changes are certainly afoot within Western armies. Treaties aimed at humanising armed conflict could be denounced.

ELECTROMAGNETICS, CYBER, IA, DRONES, 3D PRINTING... HOW COULD TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS IMPACT URBAN COMBAT IN THE NEAR FUTURE?

The urban area is an uncertain, contested, compartmentalised, very quickly congested and abrasive manoeuvring space, with a levelling effect between combatants. As such, it undoubtedly represents the battlefield where tactics can express themselves in the face of hypertechnology.

However, this does not yet provide sufficient tactical advantage to outmanoeuvre the adversary while preserving manoeuvring room, even in the dialectic of wills that characterises the hypothesis of a major engagement (HEM). Artificial intelligence (AI), for example, has not yet been able to exceed the cognitive capacities of the landed combatant and his chain of command. In physical terms, devices such as exoskeletons are not yet mature enough to effectively increase the individual capabilities of landed combatants. However, by exposing the vectors rather than the operators, the technology should enable contact engagements to be repeated while preserving the human matrix of combat units. In so doing, it enhances the role of the combatant by generating ubiquity and persistence effects that improve continuous control of the environment.

In this context, ubiquity is understood as a presence deported to the battlefield, allowing access to all compartments of the urban area and contributing to the transparency of the battlefield. Persistence is defined as the ability to continue to act over time, either continuously (in which case we prefer the term permanence) or discontinuously. This omnipresence in both space and time enabled by automated systems contributes to freedom of action, economy of force and concentration of effort.

HYPER-TECHNOLOGY GENERATES UBIQUITOUS EFFECTS

Urban combat requires freedom of movement. However, the effects of direct and indirect fire are responsible for the rapid and lasting generation of obstacles that severely hamper manoeuvre in the city. Gravas, shell craters and other shattered metal structures are all obstacles that opportunistically facilitate channelling and subtraction. For the tactical leader, it's as much a question of freeing himself from the shaping effect of the enemy as it is of reaching his points of articulation by new routes. This is why, for example, land-based robotics must enable the disembarked combatant to penetrate a three-dimensional manoeuvring space superimposed in several layers (ground level, underground networks and vertical tiers) of infrastructures harbouring a multiple, omnidirectional threat of varying intensity.

In this chaotic environment, tracked or wheeled vehicles may be unsuitable or insufficient. Biomimetic robots (inspired by the animal world) offer interesting alternative modes of movement such as crawling or quadruped, giving access to areas of engagement that were previously difficult to access. They are an asset for exploring and occupying, for example, ruined areas or underground spaces that are ideal for camouflage, protection, stealth and, ultimately, surprise, a decisive factor of operational superiority in urban areas.. By acting in this new, unexpected space, and combined with other coordinated actions, the robot fixes the enemy, physically and psychologically, because of the tactical dilemma it imposes on him in terms of choosing his area of effort. In this way, it breaks its decision-making cycle and achieves its moral strength.

The benefits of integrating automated systems are not limited to mobility. Robots, combined with specific sensors, offer substantial opportunities for understanding the tactical environment. Technologies such as electrolocation, which occurs naturally in certain species of fish, are capable of scanning an environment where most sensors (pressure, accelerometers) are inadequate, by generating an undetectable peripheral electric field (unlike radar or sonar) that reacts to the slightest change in state. Other sources of biorobotic inspiration include the eyes of flies, which are real assets for managing trajectories and avoiding obstacles, and sensory hairs that perceive the tiniest movements, offering innovative prospects for the remote gathering of information in three-dimensional spaces that are sometimes difficult to access.

"PREPARING TO CONQUER THE CITY BELOW THE CONFLICT THRESHOLD

In addition, the development of terrestrial robotics' ability to connect to urban networks should help to prepare for the conquest of the city below the conflict threshold by targeting the city's equilibrium (supply, health, security and communication services). The installation of hertzian telecommunications networks, the ongoing generalisation of fibre optics and the development of connectivity through the addition of sensors are helping to connect more and more collective systems and buildings via the Internet. Electronic innovation in the urban environment is experiencing strong growth, with an ever-widening range of applications. Connectivity is already being applied on a daily basis in many areas critical to the smooth running of a city, from the management of electrical infrastructure networks, water distribution and urban traffic regulation, to mapping and locating human activities in real time, to the remote control of heating, electricity and security systems. The misuse of these resources can be used for intelligence gathering (detection, surveillance, recognition) as well as for coercion.

The use of robotic systems also provides a solution to the search for the mass effect needed to win a favourable balance of power, particularly in urban areas. Robots multiply the force's capabilities by replacing humans, complementing their actions and protecting them from enemy contact. While their use in investigation, mine clearance or logistical support (lightening) functions is now well known, the offensive effects of saturation, flabbergasting and targeted harassment, maximised by swarm engagement, are the subject of major investment in development.

Lastly, the deployment by ground robotics of a mesh enabling transmission signals to be relayed, using the communications networks of existing urban infrastructures, guarantees control of electromagnetic space and contributes to the conquest of superiority at microtactical level. In an environment where the verticality of buildings, the thickness of construction materials and the tightness of buildings disrupt the propagation of electromagnetic waves, this mesh preserves links and facilitates the use of automated swarms, just as it enables command and liaison resources to be challenged in the electromagnetic field and the integration of a contact electronic warfare capability. The aim is not just to paralyse the ability to communicate, but also to locate electromagnetic activities that can be made consistent with the adversary's posture and intentions by analysis, in other words, to read his action. This approach enhances protection in the tight, confined spaces of the city, reducing engagement distances, analysis times and reaction times, while also increasing combatant stress. The observation, surveillance and decoy capabilities of ground-based robotics, including in spectrums other than the visible spectrum, can then be coupled with drone/remotely operated munitions (MTO) and anti-drone (LAD) resources to create an omnidirectional and extended threat perception bubble.

This use of terrestrial robotics in urban areas results in a form of ubiquity by multiplying the actions of disembarked combatants in all spectrums, at all scales and in all strata of the city..

HYPER-TECHNOLOGY GENERATES PERSISTENCE EFFECTS

Continuous control of the environment cannot be envisaged without a form of persistence which is understood as resistance to the abrasion exerted by action in urban areas (AZUR). It is conceived from the point of view of protection by partially transferring the risk to the vectors rather than to the operators when implementing the observation, aggression, logistics and protection functions.

The observation function is similar to the current use of drones first person view (FPV). These vectors are easily accessible and inexpensive in terms of war economy, and they also take up very little space and can be deployed quickly and easily. Although fragile and subject to aerological hazards, they have a small logistical footprint and require little maintenance. They are generally considered to be consumable in terms of exposure to urban risks. In this manoeuvring area, they provide a remote, close-up, three-dimensional observation point for gathering intelligence for immediate use, independently of air control. Their mode of engagement should serve as a model for the development of fast, highly mobile and stealthy land-based micro vectors, capable of acting like mobile sensors that occupy the terrain while showing themselves capable of adapting their posture to the evolution of the situation, thus providing permanent observation. Interesting vectors already exist as part of the operation of pipelines or underground transport networks. By combining ground and air capabilities, an advantageous compromise can be established between durability and agility. Units can then act by combining remotely-operated manoeuvres and dismounted combat.

The aggression function, when remotely-operated, can be used on a permanent basis, provided that sufficient weapon systems are available to compensate for losses. In order to achieve the effect of permanence and mass, the action of multi-purpose land platforms (PPT) must be complemented by the use of land-based MTO developed from the point of view of technological frugality and limited cost in order to be consumable. We could even imagine a PPT with its own land and air MTO launcher.

"CONTINUING TO TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT AGAINST TECHNOLOGICAL RISKS

Sustainability in urban areas requires a resilient logistics function, a factor to which TPPs can make a significant contribution. The intensity of urban operations and the use of gap operations (micro-theatre/isolation) require a substantial increase in the operational autonomy of units. In addition to controlling consumption and exploiting any local resources still available, this need for autonomy means an increase in initial supplies, which need to be available as close to the point of contact as possible. The increase in logistical carrying capacity at the lowest echelons is a challenge in itself, compounded in urban areas by the chaos of the terrain, the omnidirectional threat and very short-range engagements. TPPs need to offer automated, branched logistical support solutions covering the three functions RAV (supply), MEC (maintenance and repair) and SAN (medical support) from level 6 (section or platoon) upwards. In addition, operations in urban areas are characterised by high consumption and a high casualty rate, as well as greater recovery and casualty evacuation constraints than in open areas. Demonstrators of RAV and SAN vectors already exist. Their autonomy also depends on their integration into the digitisation of the battlespace.

Finally, persistence also includes the ability to continue action while protecting oneself from technological risks. In addition to counter-mobility actions by mining or trapping, the urban area is home to a large number of industrial, commercial and hospital infrastructures, as well as numerous supply networks that can represent a radiological, biological or chemical hazard. In cities, the effects of toxic agents are amplified by confined environments and the presence of people. This is because toxic agents are more likely to concentrate in enclosed and underground spaces, and are less affected by natural factors (wind, ultraviolet rays) that could make them less dangerous. Transferring the risk to automated systems protects landed combatants from toxic agents.

This is why, Without calling into question the principles of general tactics, the use of automated systems in urban areas should have a considerable influence on urban combat in the future.