Not far from Ukraine, the other European issue in the Balkans

To mark the 3e International session on the Balkans and South-East Europe (SIB), focusing on this border region that has long been affected by conflict and is increasingly integrated into the EU.

A MOSAIC OF PEOPLES SHAKEN BY HISTORY

Since the start of the war in Ukraine, we have often heard that it is the first event of this intensity in Europe since the end of the Second World War: this is what researcher Loïc Trégourès, head of teaching at the IHEDN national session, calls "Yugoslav oblivion". This week, the region is the focus of the International Session on the Balkans and South-East Europe (SIB) 2023, organised by the IHEDN and the Directorate for Security and Defence Cooperation.

Before 1914, the Balkans were the "powder keg of Europe", which exploded in Sarajevo on 28 June of that year with the assassination of the heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, triggering the First World War.

After the conflict, this mosaic of Catholic and Orthodox Christian peoples, Muslims, Slavs and non-Slavs, merged into a kingdom, then into socialist Yugoslavia (soon to be "non-aligned" with the USSR), living together for more than seven decades. But between 1991 and 2001, Yugoslavia was torn apart in a series of wars, marked in particular by NATO strikes, leading to its break-up into a myriad of states.

Geographically, the Balkans refers to the peninsula that forms the south-east of Europe, between the Black, Marmara and Adriatic Seas, with the Danube to the north. In the broadest sense, they therefore include Bulgaria, Greece and the European part of Turkey, as well as Romania and Moldavia. But the European Union distinguishes between the Western Balkans, with Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia.

A STRATEGIC REGION FOR EUROPE AND FRANCE

At present, only Bulgaria, Slovenia and Croatia are members of the EU. Montenegro, Serbia, Albania, Northern Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina are recognised candidates to join the Union; Kosovo has declared itself, but is not yet recognised by 5 of the 27 States, and is therefore not an official candidate.

In Berlin in April 2019, President Macron called on France to develop a genuine strategy for the Western BalkansAfter a decade of disinvestment in the region, due to other strategic priorities, notably in Africa, the European Union has adopted a roadmap for the region. The roadmap aims to achieve "lasting stability" in the region, and to address political (unresolved disputes between Serbia and Kosovo, for example), economic and social challenges, including the rule of law, security and "external influences that are distracting the region from its European vocation".

In terms of defence, the IHEDN welcomes officers from the region. On the civilian side, the French Development Agency (AFD) has been asked to support stabilisation and development, ecological transition, youth, gender equality, etc.

In a region where mafias are powerful and migration routes numerous, the "justice" aspect includes "continuing technical cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, arms trafficking and trafficking in human beings, and in the fight against organised crime and corruption", as well as "setting up new cooperation in financial and economic crime, and in the fight against trafficking in cultural goods and protected species, which can also be sources of funding for terrorism".

Under the French Presidency of the EU in 2022, Emmanuel Macron is pushing for the creation of a European Political Community (EPC). While it is still too early to draw conclusions, many people in the Balkans believe that this will be a permanent second division rather than a gateway to the EU. And while the question of enlargement until 2021 only concerned the Western Balkans, Russia's aggression has opened the door to Ukraine, Moldova and even Georgia.

IN THE CURRENT WAR AND BEYOND

There are several NATO members in the Balkans: Albania, Croatia, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro and Slovenia, while Bosnia-Herzegovina has been a member of NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP) since 2010. But the region is not free from Turkish, Chinese or Russian influences.

While Serbia joined the Europeans in condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine at the UN, it decided not to apply the European sanctions. The Serbian media, which is close to the government, has been very pro-Russian and critical of the EU for the last ten years, and this is reflected in public opinion.

Since the conflict in Ukraine, several countries have fallen victim to cyber attacks: in August, Montenegro, a supporter of European sanctions, accused Russiaobservers also pointed the finger at Moscow for operations in Albania in July, but Tirana finally pointed the finger at Iran.

In this new context, various international bodies are continuing to cooperate in the region: the EU, AFD, OSCE, etc. Some have been doing so for a long time, like the military in Kosovo: KFOR, deployed by NATO (with contingents from non-NATO countries), has been present since the UN resolution authorising it in 1999. France, several of whose generals had commanded it, withdrew its troops in 2013.